WhetherHistory

Weekly operating brief

Sunny • Live • As of Aug 31, 2026

History

Past calls, as they were published.

Updated
This week

The plane the call is made on

Funding pressure and risk appetite are not two readings that happen to sit side by side — together they are one coordinate, and the call is whichever quadrant it lands in. Boundaries at 70 and 50 are the same two numbers the weekly brief cites.

Aug 2026 reads Sunny: funding pressure 63, risk appetite 56. The call changes when funding pressure crosses 70 or risk appetite crosses 50. Funding pressure is 7 points below its boundary. Rising through it alone would read Cloudy. Risk appetite is 6 points above its boundary. Falling back through it alone would read Stormy. The plotted path covers 176 months, from Jan 2012 to Aug 2026, and crosses a boundary 22 times.

176 of 176 months on record, from Jan 2012 at the hollow grey marker to Aug 2026 at the filled one. Coloured rings mark the 22 months the published call changed. The broken top edge is the score ceiling: funding pressure stops separating expensive money from very expensive money there, and 20 months sit pinned against it.

Reading now

SunnyAug 2026

Funding pressure
63 / −7 from 70
Risk appetite
56 / +6 from 50

Risk appetite is 6 points above its boundary. Falling back through it alone would read Stormy.

Months in each quadrant

  • Sunny113
  • Stormy27
  • Freezing25
  • Cloudy11
Plotted months, as a table
Every month drawn on the phase map, newest first, with its coordinates and the call it produced.
MonthCallPressureAppetite
Aug 2026Sunny6356
Jul 2026Sunny5059
Jun 2026Sunny3652
May 2026Sunny4059
Apr 2026Sunny4061
Mar 2026Sunny4360
Feb 2026Sunny4364
Jan 2026Sunny4070
Dec 2025Sunnychanged4368
Nov 2025Cloudy9062
Oct 2025Cloudy9060
Sep 2025Cloudy9062
Aug 2025Cloudy9066
Jul 2025Cloudy9057
Jun 2025Cloudy9061
May 2025Cloudy9061
Apr 2025Cloudy9063
Mar 2025Cloudychanged9054
Feb 2025Freezingchanged9050
Jan 2025Cloudy9054
Dec 2024Cloudychanged9053
Nov 2024Freezing9042
Oct 2024Freezing9045
Sep 2024Freezing9046
Aug 2024Freezing9040
Jul 2024Freezing100*32
Jun 2024Freezing100*26
May 2024Freezing100*25
Apr 2024Freezingchanged100*26
Mar 2024Stormychanged040
Feb 2024Freezing100*24
Jan 2024Freezing100*29
Dec 2023Freezing100*26
Nov 2023Freezing100*26
Oct 2023Freezing100*32
Sep 2023Freezing100*22
Aug 2023Freezing100*10
Jul 2023Freezing100*4
Jun 2023Freezing100*0
May 2023Freezing100*10
Apr 2023Freezing100*16
Mar 2023Freezing100*17
Feb 2023Freezing100*4
Jan 2023Freezing100*12
Dec 2022Freezing100*19
Nov 2022Freezingchanged100*12
Oct 2022Stormy6224
Sep 2022Stormy1924
Aug 2022Stormy1528
Jul 2022Stormy1131
Jun 2022Stormychanged042
May 2022Sunnychanged053
Apr 2022Stormy048
Mar 2022Stormychanged042
Feb 2022Sunny056
Jan 2022Sunny064
Dec 2021Sunny072
Nov 2021Sunny076
Oct 2021Sunny083
Sep 2021Sunny090
Aug 2021Sunny084
Jul 2021Sunny082
Jun 2021Sunnychanged088
May 2021Stormychanged040
Apr 2021Sunny0100
Mar 2021Sunny0100
Feb 2021Sunny092
Jan 2021Sunny080
Dec 2020Sunny072
Nov 2020Sunny067
Oct 2020Sunny070
Sep 2020Sunny062
Aug 2020Sunny063
Jul 2020Sunny058
Jun 2020Sunny060
May 2020Sunny060
Apr 2020Sunny058
Mar 2020Sunny059
Feb 2020Sunnychanged051
Jan 2020Stormychanged047
Dec 2019Sunnychanged054
Nov 2019Stormy047
Oct 2019Stormy047
Sep 2019Stormy042
Aug 2019Stormy040
Jul 2019Stormy045
Jun 2019Stormy050
May 2019Stormy048
Apr 2019Stormy050
Mar 2019Stormy046
Feb 2019Stormy048
Jan 2019Stormy047
Dec 2018Stormy048
Nov 2018Stormychanged048
Oct 2018Sunnychanged051
Sep 2018Stormy050
Aug 2018Stormychanged050
Jul 2018Sunny052
Jun 2018Sunny053
May 2018Sunny057
Apr 2018Sunnychanged058
Mar 2018Stormychanged040
Feb 2018Sunny065
Jan 2018Sunny063
Dec 2017Sunny060
Nov 2017Sunny066
Oct 2017Sunny071
Sep 2017Sunny074
Aug 2017Sunny072
Jul 2017Sunny078
Jun 2017Sunny077
May 2017Sunny077
Apr 2017Sunny080
Mar 2017Sunny085
Feb 2017Sunny086
Jan 2017Sunny090
Dec 2016Sunny090
Nov 2016Sunny090
Oct 2016Sunny079
Sep 2016Sunny073
Aug 2016Sunny071
Jul 2016Sunny072
Jun 2016Sunny076
May 2016Sunny079
Apr 2016Sunny082
Mar 2016Sunny082
Feb 2016Sunny078
Jan 2016Sunny087
Dec 2015Sunny088
Nov 2015Sunny091
Oct 2015Sunny096
Sep 2015Sunny097
Aug 2015Sunny099
Jul 2015Sunny0100
Jun 2015Sunny0100
May 2015Sunny0100
Apr 2015Sunny099
Mar 2015Sunny095
Feb 2015Sunny095
Jan 2015Sunny088
Dec 2014Sunny0100
Nov 2014Sunny0100
Oct 2014Sunny0100
Sep 2014Sunny0100
Aug 2014Sunny0100
Jul 2014Sunny0100
Jun 2014Sunny0100
May 2014Sunny0100
Apr 2014Sunny0100
Mar 2014Sunny0100
Feb 2014Sunny0100
Jan 2014Sunny0100
Dec 2013Sunny0100
Nov 2013Sunny0100
Oct 2013Sunny0100
Sep 2013Sunny0100
Aug 2013Sunny0100
Jul 2013Sunny0100
Jun 2013Sunny0100
May 2013Sunny0100
Apr 2013Sunnychanged099
Mar 2013Stormychanged040
Feb 2013Sunny0100
Jan 2013Sunny0100
Dec 2012Sunny0100
Nov 2012Sunny095
Oct 2012Sunny097
Sep 2012Sunny097
Aug 2012Sunny094
Jul 2012Sunny091
Jun 2012Sunny094
May 2012Sunny093
Apr 2012Sunny0100
Mar 2012Sunny0100
Feb 2012Sunny0100
Jan 2012Sunny0100

Track record

Every call this engine has made, from the same published formula. Not a forecast — a record you can audit.

Months on record
176
Current call held
9 mos
Regime changes
1.5 per year
Record starts
Jan 31, 2012

The call has been Sunny since Dec 31, 2025. Hysteresis in the scoring means a single noisy month cannot flip it, so a held call is the expected state and a change is the event worth reading.

Monthly calls (176) · Jan 31, 2012 to Aug 31, 2026
The 12 most recent monthly operating calls, newest first, with the boldness score behind each call.
MonthCallBoldness
Aug 2026Sunny50-6
Jul 2026Sunny560
Jun 2026Sunny56-3
May 2026Sunny59-2
Apr 2026Sunny61+2
Mar 2026Sunny59-3
Feb 2026Sunny62-5
Jan 2026Sunny67+2
Dec 2025Sunnychanged65+19
Nov 2025Cloudy46+1
Oct 2025Cloudy45-1
Sep 2025Cloudy46-3

Earlier months (164) · Jan 31, 2012 to Sep 30, 2025

The remainder of the monthly operating call history, newest first.
MonthCallBoldness
Aug 2025Cloudy49+6
Jul 2025Cloudy43-3
Jun 2025Cloudy460
May 2025Cloudy46-1
Apr 2025Cloudy47+6
Mar 2025Cloudychanged41+3
Feb 2025Freezingchanged38-3
Jan 2025Cloudy41+1
Dec 2024Cloudychanged40+8
Nov 2024Freezing32-3
Oct 2024Freezing350
Sep 2024Freezing35+4
Aug 2024Freezing31+9
Jul 2024Freezing22+4
Jun 2024Freezing180
May 2024Freezing180
Apr 2024Freezingchanged18-40
Mar 2024Stormychanged58+41
Feb 2024Freezing17-3
Jan 2024Freezing20+2
Dec 2023Freezing180
Nov 2023Freezing18-4
Oct 2023Freezing22+7
Sep 2023Freezing15+8
Aug 2023Freezing7+4
Jul 2023Freezing3+3
Jun 2023Freezing0-7
May 2023Freezing7-4
Apr 2023Freezing11-1
Mar 2023Freezing12+9
Feb 2023Freezing3-5
Jan 2023Freezing8-5
Dec 2022Freezing13+5
Nov 2022Freezingchanged8-20
Oct 2022Stormy28-13
Sep 2022Stormy41-4
Aug 2022Stormy45-3
Jul 2022Stormy48-11
Jun 2022Stormychanged59-8
May 2022Sunnychanged67+3
Apr 2022Stormy64+5
Mar 2022Stormychanged59-10
Feb 2022Sunny69-6
Jan 2022Sunny75-5
Dec 2021Sunny80-3
Nov 2021Sunny83-5
Oct 2021Sunny88-5
Sep 2021Sunny93+4
Aug 2021Sunny89+2
Jul 2021Sunny87-5
Jun 2021Sunnychanged92+34
May 2021Stormychanged58-42
Apr 2021Sunny1000
Mar 2021Sunny100+6
Feb 2021Sunny94+8
Jan 2021Sunny86+6
Dec 2020Sunny80+3
Nov 2020Sunny77-2
Oct 2020Sunny79+6
Sep 2020Sunny73-1
Aug 2020Sunny74+3
Jul 2020Sunny71-1
Jun 2020Sunny720
May 2020Sunny72+1
Apr 2020Sunny710
Mar 2020Sunny71+5
Feb 2020Sunnychanged66+3
Jan 2020Stormychanged63-5
Dec 2019Sunnychanged68+5
Nov 2019Stormy630
Oct 2019Stormy63+4
Sep 2019Stormy59+1
Aug 2019Stormy58-4
Jul 2019Stormy62-3
Jun 2019Stormy65+1
May 2019Stormy64-1
Apr 2019Stormy65+3
Mar 2019Stormy62-2
Feb 2019Stormy64+1
Jan 2019Stormy63-1
Dec 2018Stormy640
Nov 2018Stormychanged64-2
Oct 2018Sunnychanged66+1
Sep 2018Stormy650
Aug 2018Stormychanged65-1
Jul 2018Sunny66-1
Jun 2018Sunny67-3
May 2018Sunny70-1
Apr 2018Sunnychanged71+13
Mar 2018Stormychanged58-18
Feb 2018Sunny76+2
Jan 2018Sunny74+2
Dec 2017Sunny72-4
Nov 2017Sunny76-4
Oct 2017Sunny80-2
Sep 2017Sunny82+2
Aug 2017Sunny80-5
Jul 2017Sunny85+1
Jun 2017Sunny840
May 2017Sunny84-2
Apr 2017Sunny86-4
Mar 2017Sunny900
Feb 2017Sunny90-3
Jan 2017Sunny930
Dec 2016Sunny930
Nov 2016Sunny93+8
Oct 2016Sunny85+4
Sep 2016Sunny81+1
Aug 2016Sunny800
Jul 2016Sunny80-3
Jun 2016Sunny83-2
May 2016Sunny85-2
Apr 2016Sunny870
Mar 2016Sunny87+2
Feb 2016Sunny85-6
Jan 2016Sunny91-1
Dec 2015Sunny92-2
Nov 2015Sunny94-3
Oct 2015Sunny97-1
Sep 2015Sunny98-1
Aug 2015Sunny99-1
Jul 2015Sunny1000
Jun 2015Sunny1000
May 2015Sunny100+1
Apr 2015Sunny99+2
Mar 2015Sunny970
Feb 2015Sunny97+5
Jan 2015Sunny92-8
Dec 2014Sunny1000
Nov 2014Sunny1000
Oct 2014Sunny1000
Sep 2014Sunny1000
Aug 2014Sunny1000
Jul 2014Sunny1000
Jun 2014Sunny1000
May 2014Sunny1000
Apr 2014Sunny1000
Mar 2014Sunny1000
Feb 2014Sunny1000
Jan 2014Sunny1000
Dec 2013Sunny1000
Nov 2013Sunny1000
Oct 2013Sunny1000
Sep 2013Sunny1000
Aug 2013Sunny1000
Jul 2013Sunny1000
Jun 2013Sunny1000
May 2013Sunny100+1
Apr 2013Sunnychanged99+41
Mar 2013Stormychanged58-42
Feb 2013Sunny1000
Jan 2013Sunny1000
Dec 2012Sunny100+3
Nov 2012Sunny97-1
Oct 2012Sunny980
Sep 2012Sunny98+2
Aug 2012Sunny96+2
Jul 2012Sunny94-2
Jun 2012Sunny96+1
May 2012Sunny95-5
Apr 2012Sunny1000
Mar 2012Sunny1000
Feb 2012Sunny1000
Jan 2012Sunny100—

Published weekly briefs

One week published so far. Entries are never edited after publication, so the archive fills forward from here.

How the record held up

How the calls held up, graded against the same data that produced them.

Regime changes
10in 60 mo
Signaled in advance
2of 10
Median hold
3.5mo
One-month whipsaws
3
WhenChangeAdvance signal
Dec 2025Cloudy → Sunnyno advance signal
Mar 2025Freezing → Cloudyno advance signal
Feb 2025Cloudy → Freezingno advance signal
Dec 2024Freezing → Cloudyno advance signal
Apr 2024Stormy → Freezingno advance signal
Mar 2024Freezing → Stormyno advance signal
Nov 2022Stormy → Freezingno advance signal
Jun 2022Sunny → Stormyin the near band 1 mo before

Signaled = the score that crossed had already spent at least a month within 5 pts of its classification line, so the flip was visible before it happened. Unsignaled changes are listed just the same — that is the point of this table.

Posture by year

What the operating posture was in each closed period, with the regime splits and mid-period reversals behind it.

Explore raw historical conditions

Historical trends

Continuous macro regime and funding-pressure trajectory since 2012.

Compare two periods →

Interactive macro timeline

Drag to scrub · shift-drag for single months · pinch or ⌘-scroll to zoom
Aug 2026· SunnyLatest
Zoom:
  • Sunny
  • Freezing
  • Cloudy
  • Stormy
Funding pressure: 63 ptsRisk Appetite: 56/1002026-08-31

Jump to specific month

How often the regime changes

Avg duration

6 mo

Transitions/year

2

Current streak

9 mo

Longest SCARCITY

16 mo

Funding pressure63Funding pressure fell 27 over 12 months to 63.

12 months · latest Aug 2026

Risk appetite56Risk appetite fell 6 over 12 months to 56.

12 months · latest Aug 2026