Record

Conditions by month

Since the last month-end, the week of Oct 26, 2026 was published as Cloudy. Read that week

These months are scored today, with the current model. They don’t show what we said at the time or what any company did. For what we actually published, use the dated briefs below.

• Week of Oct 26, 2026Cloudy

  Commit to what protects income you have; new bets wait for cheaper money.

• Weeks of Sep 28 – Oct 5, 2026Freezing

  Approve only renewals, work already promised to customers, and hires that bring in revenue.

  Each week:Oct 5Sep 28

• Weeks of Sep 14 – Sep 21, 2026Freezing

  Tighten to survival mode: approve only renewals, core delivery, and revenue-backed roles.

  Each week:Sep 21Sep 14

• Week of Jul 27, 2026Sunny

  Keep expansion selective: add capacity only in proven demand lanes and keep rollback criteria explicit.

Changes in conditions

5 in the last 60 months

Signaled in advance

2 of 5

Median hold

7 mo

Reversed after one month

0

“Signaled” means the score that crossed was within 5 pts of its line, on either side, for at least a month first. Changes with no warning are listed too; that’s the point of the table.

We re-scored the record on Oct 9, 2026, after adding the Chicago Fed's financial conditions index, so the record uses the same inputs that now set the guidance. No month's conditions changed, so the counts above match the ones published before.