Conditions in 2022
This is a reconstruction: what today's published formula says about 2022, not guidance we published at the time. Whether began publishing weekly briefs in the week of Jul 27, 2026.
Freezing for 22 of 52 weekly readings, tied with Stormy.
Freezing: Capital is expensive and lenders are pulling back. Prioritize survival over growth. The job this year is to commit only to survival priorities, extend runway, and reset plans around cash preservation.
Guidance, by today's formula: commit only to survival priorities, extend runway, and reset plans around cash preservation
Maintained by Kanav Jain · reading dated
Operating constraints that applied
- Shorten payback windows and preserve cash.
- Delay speculative hiring or large platform rewrites.
- Route roadmap bets through revenue certainty.
How the period actually split
Derived from 52 weekly readings inside 2022.
- Stormy42% · 22 of 52
- Freezing42% · 22 of 52
- Sunny15% · 8 of 52
Changes in conditions inside 2022
- Mar 4, 2022SunnytoStormy
- Aug 5, 2022StormytoFreezing
Signals of record
- Short-term borrowing rate (one-month Treasury bill)4.12%
- 2-year Treasury rate4.41%
- 10-year Treasury rate3.88%
- Recession warning gauge (10-year minus 2-year rate)-0.53%
Source: US Treasury Daily Treasury Yield Curve Rates (via FRED) · View series
From the reading list, published in 2022
- Adapting to Endure — Sequoia Capital, May 2022
- The Upside of a Downturn — Lightspeed Venture Partners, May 2022
These come from the product management reading list. It places each title on the conditions of the month it came out.
Quarter by quarter
- Q1 2022 — Sunnyscale the strongest plays, invest in growth engines, and keep payback discipline steady
- Q2 2022 — Stormybalance experiments with clear guardrails, keep approvals reversible, and protect core KPIs
- Q3 2022 — Freezinglock discretionary spend, extend runway, and demand tighter payback before expanding plans
- Q4 2022 — Freezinglock discretionary spend, extend runway, and demand tighter payback before expanding plans
Browse another year
What are conditions now?
2022 is a closed record. The weekly brief has the current conditions, this week's move and the lines that would change it.
Open this week's brief