Conditions in 2025
This is a reconstruction: what today's published formula says about 2025, not guidance we published at the time. Whether began publishing weekly briefs in the week of Jul 27, 2026.
Cloudy for 29 of 52 weekly readings; Sunny at the close.
Cloudy: Capital is expensive but funding stays selective. Operate for efficiency. The job this year is to anchor the roadmap on retention, reliability, and margin resilience.
Guidance, by today's formula: anchor the roadmap on retention, reliability, and margin resilience
Maintained by Kanav Jain · reading dated
Operating constraints that applied
- Focus on margin expansion and retention.
- Cut low-leverage experiments.
- Convert demand with tighter sales cycles.
How the period actually split
Derived from 52 weekly readings inside 2025.
- Cloudy56% · 29 of 52
- Freezing37% · 19 of 52
- Sunny8% · 4 of 52
Changes in conditions inside 2025
- May 16, 2025FreezingtoCloudy
- Dec 5, 2025CloudytoSunny
Signals of record
- Short-term borrowing rate (one-month Treasury bill)3.74%
- 2-year Treasury rate3.47%
- 10-year Treasury rate4.18%
- Recession warning gauge (10-year minus 2-year rate)0.71%
Source: US Treasury Daily Treasury Yield Curve Rates (via FRED) · View series
From the reading list, published in 2025
- The AI Product Playbook — Marily Nika and Diego Granados, Sep 2025
These come from the product management reading list. It places each title on the conditions of the month it came out.
Quarter by quarter
- Q1 2025 — Freezinglock discretionary spend, extend runway, and demand tighter payback before expanding plans
- Q2 2025 — Cloudyput revenue that repeats first, cut fixed cost, and order new bets by how easily they can be undone
- Q3 2025 — Cloudyput revenue that repeats first, cut fixed cost, and order new bets by how easily they can be undone
- Q4 2025 — Cloudyput revenue that repeats first, cut fixed cost, and order new bets by how easily they can be undone
Browse another year
What are conditions now?
2025 is a closed record. The weekly brief has the current conditions, this week's move and the lines that would change it.
Open this week's brief