Conditions in Q2 2025
This is a reconstruction: what today's published formula says about Q2 2025, not guidance we published at the time. Whether began publishing weekly briefs in the week of Jul 27, 2026.
Cloudy for 7 of 13 weekly readings.
Cloudy: Capital is expensive but funding stays selective. Operate for efficiency. The job this quarter is to put revenue that repeats first, cut fixed cost, and order new bets by how easily they can be undone.
Guidance, by today's formula: put revenue that repeats first, cut fixed cost, and order new bets by how easily they can be undone
Maintained by Kanav Jain · reading dated
Operating constraints that applied
- Focus on margin expansion and retention.
- Cut low-leverage experiments.
- Convert demand with tighter sales cycles.
How the period actually split
Derived from 13 weekly readings inside Q2 2025.
- Cloudy54% · 7 of 13
- Freezing46% · 6 of 13
Changes in conditions inside Q2 2025
- May 16, 2025FreezingtoCloudy
Signals of record
- Short-term borrowing rate (one-month Treasury bill)4.28%
- 2-year Treasury rate3.72%
- 10-year Treasury rate4.24%
- Recession warning gauge (10-year minus 2-year rate)0.52%
Source: US Treasury Daily Treasury Yield Curve Rates (via FRED) · View series
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What are conditions now?
Q2 2025 is a closed record. The weekly brief has the current conditions, this week's move and the lines that would change it.
Open this week's brief