Conditions in Q1 2025
This is a reconstruction: what today's published formula says about Q1 2025, not guidance we published at the time. Whether began publishing weekly briefs in the week of Jul 27, 2026.
Freezing for all 13 weekly readings.
Freezing: Capital is expensive and lenders are pulling back. Prioritize survival over growth. The job this quarter is to lock discretionary spend, extend runway, and demand tighter payback before expanding plans.
Guidance, by today's formula: lock discretionary spend, extend runway, and demand tighter payback before expanding plans
Maintained by Kanav Jain · reading dated
Operating constraints that applied
- Shorten payback windows and preserve cash.
- Delay speculative hiring or large platform rewrites.
- Route roadmap bets through revenue certainty.
How the period actually split
Derived from 13 weekly readings inside Q1 2025.
- Freezing100% · 13 of 13
Changes in conditions inside Q1 2025
Conditions held at Freezing for the whole period.
Signals of record
- Short-term borrowing rate (one-month Treasury bill)4.38%
- 2-year Treasury rate3.89%
- 10-year Treasury rate4.23%
- Recession warning gauge (10-year minus 2-year rate)0.34%
Source: US Treasury Daily Treasury Yield Curve Rates (via FRED) · View series
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What are conditions now?
Q1 2025 is a closed record. The weekly brief has the current conditions, this week's move and the lines that would change it.
Open this week's brief