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We read interest rates and credit markets and tell you when to pause or resume hiring, spending and fundraising. Updated every Monday, with an email the day a line is crossed.

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Your decisionsPrivacyAcceptable UseTermsGitHubBuilt byKanav JainNextConsensus© 2026 Whether

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Period selectionWhat changedSide-by-side rules
RecordCalibrationCompare periodsProduct writingSourcesHow the scores are built

All sources live • Data as of Oct 26, 2026

Compare two periods

Signals and operating guidance for any two past months, side by side.

Checked Oct 28, 2026, 2:00 AM UTC

  • Period selection
  • What changed
  • Side-by-side rules

Difference

What changed between them

Funding pressurehigher is worse90 of 100 · 14 pts above the pause line
667076

Resume 66Change line 70Pause 76

Period B: 2

Risk appetitehigher is better53 of 100 · 1 pt below the resume line
445054

Corporate borrowing premium, A minus B
—

The extra interest mid-grade companies pay to borrow, over the government's rate. Not on record for Period B (Mar 31, 2020).

Period A is the filled dot, period B the hollow one; the lines are the ones in force in period A.

Period ACloudy

Oct 26, 2026

Operating latitude down slightly since Sep 30.

Rules in Period A

Hiring:Past its pause line

Roadmap:9 pts from its pause line

Fundraising:Past its pause line

Spending:Past its pause line

New bets:Past its pause line

Action now
Conditions are tightening. Freeze new commitments and keep spend flexible.
Pause if
Funding pressure is above 76 or risk appetite falls below 44. Funding pressure is 90 now.
Conditions change if
Funding pressure falls 20 pts from 90 to 70 or below, or risk appetite falls 3 pts from 53 to 50 or below.

Signals in Period A

Funding pressureMoney is hard to raise.90/100
Risk appetiteInvestors are selective about risk.53/100
Short-term borrowing rate4.11%
Recession warning gauge (10-year minus 2-year rate)0.32%
Corporate borrowing premium1.45%
Inflation, year over year3.72%
Unemployment rate4.2%

Period BStormy for 16 months

Mar 31, 2020

Operating latitude up since Feb 28.

Rules in Period B

Hiring:Past its pause line

Roadmap:Past its pause line

Fundraising:Past its pause line

Spending:

Pause
44
Change line 50
Resume 54

Period B: 39

74 pts from its pause line

New bets:Past its pause line

Action now
Keep your current plan, and hold anything you can't undo until the scores agree.
Pause if
A decision can't be undone. Anything you can undo can go ahead while the guidance is on hold.
Conditions change if
Both scores point the same way for a second reading. Until then, the guidance can't change.

Signals in Period B

Funding pressureMoney is easy to raise.2/100
Risk appetiteInvestors are selective about risk.39/100
Short-term borrowing rate0.05%
Recession warning gauge (10-year minus 2-year rate)0.47%
Corporate borrowing premiumNot on record for this month
Inflation, year over yearNot on record for this month
Unemployment rateNot on record for this month