Whether

Market Climate Station

Signals refreshed Feb 23, 2026, 12:35 AM

Whether report

Weekly briefing

Weekly regime pulse and recommended moves.

Data status · Live (high confidence)Toggle data status details. Expanded when content is visible; collapsed when hidden.

Signals stamped: Feb 19, 2026

Confidence: Verified live feed

Signals stamped Feb 19, 2026
Review weekly actions

Confidence cueLive signals verified for this cycle.

Why this confidence level

Treasury API responding normally; live signals verified.

Safe to use for near-term planning; proceed with normal approval flow.

Expanded when confidence detail is visible; collapsed when hidden.

Decide now

Start with Review weekly actions.

Safe to use for near-term planning; proceed with normal approval flow.

Execution sequence

    Data quality and confidenceToggle data quality and confidence details.

    Signals stamped: Feb 19, 2026

    Updated: Feb 23, 2026, 12:35 AM

    Confidence: Verified live feed

    Treasury API responding normally; live signals verified.

    Normal

    Trust state

    Verified live feed

    Treasury API responding normally; live signals verified.

    Decision in 5 seconds

    Snapshot

    Status
    Live (high confidence)
    Signals stamped
    Feb 19, 2026
    Updated
    Feb 23, 2026, 12:35 AM
    Source
    Treasury fiscal APIView source
    Normal

    Trust state

    Verified live feed

    Treasury API responding normally; live signals verified.

    Safe to use for near-term planning; proceed with normal approval flow.

    Read this first

    Decision card: what changed and what to do now.

    What changed

    Capital is cheap and risk appetite is healthy. Move quickly to capture share.

    What to do now

    Safe to use for near-term planning; proceed with normal approval flow.

    Confidence

    Verified live feed · Treasury API responding normally; live signals verified.

    This week's forecast

    Weekly action map

    Set posture fast, then skim the leadership summary for sources.

    Decision flow

    1. 1

      Posture

      Growth Mode

      scale the highest-ROI bets, hire deliberately, and keep payback discipline

    2. 2

      Constraints

      0/100 · 64/100

      Cash availability · Risk appetite

    3. 3

      One-week bet

      Smallest scope

      Protect retention or reliability.

    Recommended stance

    Operate in Growth Mode mode.

    scale the highest-ROI bets, hire deliberately, and keep payback discipline

    Since last read

    View the delta snapshot before you lock weekly decisions. Jump to the change log.

    Regime: Growth ModeStrategy: tool-need fitMacro: cash + risk appetite

    Cash availability

    0/100

    Threshold 70 (higher = tighter).

    Risk appetite

    64/100

    Threshold 50 (higher = more risk-on).

    Curve slope

    0.61%

    Curve normal

    How these three metrics are defined
    • Cash availability: Normalized score of how tight or loose credit conditions appear in Treasury-linked signals.
    • Risk appetite: Normalized score of market willingness to fund risk-on bets versus defensive posture.
    • Curve slope: Difference between long- and short-term Treasury rates; negative values indicate inversion risk.

    Copy-ready summary card

    Share the weekly posture in one pasteable block or pull it from the API for reuse.

    View weekly API
    ---
WHETHER · Market Climate Station

Updated Feb 19, 2026


---

MARKET CLIMATE

✅ RISK-ON / CAPITAL-LOOSE

Capital is accessible and risk appetite is healthy.
Expect faster approvals and higher tolerance for bold bets.


Contextual, not moral: this is what the environment is rewarding right now.


---

WHAT THIS MEANS FOR PRODUCT TEAMS (NOW)

Prioritize speed and distribution over perfection
Scale proven growth channels and expand market coverage
Keep guardrails on payback, but move decisively



---

SAFE BETS IN THIS CLIMATE

Growth experiments with clear scaling paths
New market expansion backed by demand signals
Product investments that amplify acquisition



---

LIKELY FAILURE MODES RIGHT NOW

Over-optimizing cost at the expense of momentum
Delayed launches waiting for perfect data
Under-investing in capacity while demand is strong



---

RECOMMENDED LANGUAGE FOR PLANNING

> “Given current market conditions, we should move quickly on growth bets while maintaining payback discipline and clear exit criteria.”



---

EXECUTION CONSTRAINTS

• Prioritize speed and distribution over polish.
• Accept controlled waste to win market share.
• Invest ahead of demand where signals are strong.



---

PROVENANCE

Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) (https://fred.stlouisfed.org)
Timestamp: Feb 23, 2026, 12:35 AM
Data age: 0h.
Confidence: Live (high confidence)



---

Actions:
Copy for roadmap review Check a decision Why this verdict

    Cadence

    Next Treasury refresh recorded Feb 19, 2026.

    Keep weekly decisions within this window unless new alerts publish.

    Best timing windows

    • Best window to commit roadmap scope

      Early week after leadership sync; confidence supports bounded expansion.

    • Best window for hiring approvals

      Midweek once role-to-revenue linkage is clear.

    Product strategy

    • •“Our core user problem is unchanged, and we can prove the payoff in 1–2 quarters.”
    • •“We’re trading scope for reliability because retention is the constraint.”

    Macro guidance

    • •“Delay long-payback bets until cash availability loosens or risk appetite turns.”
    • •“Keep hiring approvals tighter while the curve is inverted.”

    Keep the weekly narrative tight so leaders can decide without re-reading the data lanes.

    Executive snapshot

    Operating constraints

    Guardrails that translate macro conditions into budget, hiring, and approval policy.

    Data provenanceSource: Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED)Record date: Feb 19, 2026Timestamp: Feb 23, 2026, 12:35 AMData age: 0h.Confidence cycle: Full moon (100%)
    GrowthGrowth Mode

    The current macro posture requires clear ROI gates before approving new spend.

    Capital is cheap and risk appetite is healthy. Move quickly to capture share.

    Regime posture blends cash tightness and market risk appetite from Treasury signals.

    Tightness score

    0/100

    Threshold 70

    0 = easy capital access, 100 = tightest funding conditions.

    Risk appetite

    64/100

    Threshold 50

    0 = risk-off, 100 = markets most willing to fund growth bets.

    Constraints tracked: 3

    Rate baseline

    3.72%

    Using 1M for policy anchor

    Macro check: higher rates usually mean capital is pickier about ROI.

    Yield curve

    US 10Y4.08%
    US 2Y3.47%
    Curve slope0.61%

    Curve slope = 10Y minus 2Y; negative values indicate inversion risk.

    Macro check: inversion favors shorter-cycle bets and tighter hiring.

    -2%0%+2%

    Slope is Normal

    Data freshness

    Fetched

    Action: safe to use for day-to-day planning approvals.

    Macro check: stale data can make strategy advice look stricter than it is.

    Scoring inputs

    Source: US Treasury Fiscal Data API · Record · Fetched

    So what (1 minute)

    Quick actions for teams without macro context.

    • •Keep growth hires but require clear ROI and runway checks.
    • •Greenlight measured growth bets with clear guardrails.
    • •Curve normal; maintain growth bets but validate payback windows.

    Executive constraints

    Translate Treasury signals into immediate operating guardrails for the next planning cycle.

    • •Prioritize speed and distribution over polish.
    • •Accept controlled waste to win market share.
    • •Invest ahead of demand where signals are strong.
    Review full constraint set

    Signal confidence

    Full Treasury data coverage verified for this report.

    Confidence is derived from data freshness and missing input checks, not forecasting precision.

    Execution checklist

    Use these calls to align next-week planning and leadership updates.

    • •Capital is loosening (0/100 vs 70).
    • •Risk appetite is open (64/100 vs 50).
    • •Curve normal; maintain growth bets but validate payback windows.

    Quick actions

    Pull the full signal detail or export constraints directly into your operations brief.

    Review thresholdsExport brief

    Signal breakdown

    Risk posture matrix

    Read the balance of cash tightness and market risk appetite to anchor staffing and roadmap approvals. Tightness tracks funding friction; risk appetite tracks how willing markets are to fund growth bets.

    Cash availability (tightness) vs. market risk appetite
    Data provenanceSource: Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED)Record date: Feb 19, 2026Timestamp: Feb 23, 2026, 12:35 AMData age: 0h.Confidence cycle: Full moon (100%)

    Executive summary

    Current posture: Loose + Bold. Use tightness 0/100 and risk appetite 64/100 (normalized 0–100) to decide whether approvals should tighten or loosen.

    Evidence matrix

    High-density macro evidence for weekly operating decisions.

    YoY, bps, and 10Y−2Y are defined inline.

    Yield curve slope (10Y−2Y)

    0.61%

    Updated Feb 23, 2026, 12:35 AM

    5Y trend

    Curve has normalized; selective medium-horizon investments can move into review.

    z-score: N/A

    Yield curve slope (10Y−2Y). Latest 0.61%. Updated Feb 23, 2026, 12:35 AM. Curve has normalized; selective medium-horizon investments can move into review.

    Policy proxy rate (1M Treasury)

    3.72%

    Updated Feb 23, 2026, 12:35 AM

    5Y trend

    Funding pressure is easing; plan controlled re-acceleration only where demand is validated.

    z-score: N/A

    Policy proxy rate (1M Treasury). Latest 3.72%. Updated Feb 23, 2026, 12:35 AM. Funding pressure is easing; plan controlled re-acceleration only where demand is validated.

    Inflation pulse (CPI YoY)

    2.39%

    Updated Feb 23, 2026, 12:35 AM

    5Y trend

    Cooling inflation supports steadier assumptions for supplier and payroll planning.

    z-score: -5.68

    Inflation pulse (CPI YoY). Latest 2.39%. Updated Feb 23, 2026, 12:35 AM. Cooling inflation supports steadier assumptions for supplier and payroll planning.

    Labor slack (unemployment rate)

    4.30%

    Updated Feb 23, 2026, 12:35 AM

    5Y trend

    Labor remains resilient; focus on retention and selective backfills over broad expansion.

    z-score: 2.94

    Labor slack (unemployment rate). Latest 4.30%. Updated Feb 23, 2026, 12:35 AM. Labor remains resilient; focus on retention and selective backfills over broad expansion.

    Credit stress (BBB spread)

    1.68%

    Updated Feb 23, 2026, 12:35 AM

    5Y trend

    Contained spreads support normal execution cadence with standard contingency buffers.

    z-score: 1.14

    Credit stress (BBB spread). Latest 1.68%. Updated Feb 23, 2026, 12:35 AM. Contained spreads support normal execution cadence with standard contingency buffers.

    Command center

    10 links

    All results across actions, pages, and sections.

    Playbook = Do now · Pages = Switch surfaces · Sections = Jump within page.

    ↑/↓ move focus

    ←/→ switch controls

    Enter / OK open link

    Esc / Back clear search field

    Playbook

    Pages

    Sections

    10 command center results shown.

    Next recommended move

    Validate the signal evidence before assigning owners.

    Continue workflow →
    Not financial, legal, or investment advice.

    Current posture · Verified live feed

    Start with Review weekly actions.

    Review weekly actions