Method notes
Methodology
Each signal includes a plain-English formula and its direct source. All calculations are deterministic and traceable.
Reference mode
You are in a source-of-truth workspace. Use this page for audit-ready formulas, then return to operational surfaces to apply decisions.
How to use this page
Use these formulas to validate the live signal feed, align with finance partners, and share audit-ready methodology links with stakeholders.
Next steps
When you are ready, move to the live signals report to validate each data lane.
Formula map
Pick the formulas that answer your immediate question.
Base rate
Sets the baseline for capital tightness and runway planning.
View formula →Yield curve slope
Explains the risk appetite score and recession signals.
View formula →CPI inflation (YoY)
Used to contextualize pricing and margin pressure narratives.
View formula →Unemployment rate (U-3)
Signals hiring appetite and demand resilience in planning.
View formula →BBB credit spread (OAS)
Supports board-level risk narratives and financing timing.
View formula →Base rate
Signal formula
Uses the 1-month Treasury yield; falls back to 3-month if missing. This anchors the cost of capital in the current policy environment.
Best for
Sets the baseline for capital tightness and runway planning.
Yield curve slope
Signal formula
10-year Treasury yield minus 2-year Treasury yield. A negative slope signals risk aversion in credit markets.
Best for
Explains the risk appetite score and recession signals.
CPI inflation (YoY)
Signal formula
Year-over-year change in CPI-U. Tracks consumer inflation pressure across the basket of goods and services.
Best for
Used to contextualize pricing and margin pressure narratives.
Unemployment rate (U-3)
Signal formula
Headline unemployment rate for the civilian labor force. Indicates labor market tightness and potential demand softness.
Best for
Signals hiring appetite and demand resilience in planning.
BBB credit spread (OAS)
Signal formula
ICE BofA BBB option-adjusted spread. Higher spreads imply tighter credit conditions and lower market risk appetite.
Best for
Supports board-level risk narratives and financing timing.
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