Conditions in 2020
This is a reconstruction: what today's published formula says about 2020, not guidance we published at the time. Whether began publishing weekly briefs in the week of Jul 27, 2026.
Stormy for 48 of 53 weekly readings; Sunny at the close.
Stormy: Capital is cheaper but funding is wary. Build trust and resilience. The job this year is to keep the plan flexible, sequence bets with exit ramps, and protect the core business.
Guidance, by today's formula: keep the plan flexible, sequence bets with exit ramps, and protect the core business
Maintained by Kanav Jain · reading dated
Operating constraints that applied
- Ship reliability and security before novelty.
- Avoid disruptive pivots that spook buyers.
- Lean into proof, references, and guarantees.
How the period actually split
Derived from 53 weekly readings inside 2020.
- Stormy91% · 48 of 53
- Sunny9% · 5 of 53
Changes in conditions inside 2020
- Dec 4, 2020StormytoSunny
Signals of record
- Short-term borrowing rate (one-month Treasury bill)0.08%
- 2-year Treasury rate0.13%
- 10-year Treasury rate0.93%
- Recession warning gauge (10-year minus 2-year rate)0.80%
Source: US Treasury Daily Treasury Yield Curve Rates (via FRED) · View series
From the reading list, published in 2020
- Product Strategy – Overview — Marty Cagan, Feb 2020
- Coronavirus: The Black Swan of 2020 — Sequoia Capital, Mar 2020
- It's Time to Build — Marc Andreessen, Andreessen Horowitz, Apr 2020
- The Burn Multiple — David Sacks, Craft Ventures, Apr 2020
- Empowered — Marty Cagan and Chris Jones, Dec 2020
These come from the product management reading list. It places each title on the conditions of the month it came out.
Quarter by quarter
- Q1 2020 — Stormybalance experiments with clear guardrails, keep approvals reversible, and protect core KPIs
- Q2 2020 — Stormybalance experiments with clear guardrails, keep approvals reversible, and protect core KPIs
- Q3 2020 — Stormybalance experiments with clear guardrails, keep approvals reversible, and protect core KPIs
- Q4 2020 — Stormybalance experiments with clear guardrails, keep approvals reversible, and protect core KPIs
Browse another year
What are conditions now?
2020 is a closed record. The weekly brief has the current conditions, this week's move and the lines that would change it.
Open this week's brief