Conditions in 2023
This is a reconstruction: what today's published formula says about 2023, not guidance we published at the time. Whether began publishing weekly briefs in the week of Jul 27, 2026.
Freezing for 51 of 52 weekly readings.
Freezing: Capital is expensive and lenders are pulling back. Prioritize survival over growth. The job this year is to commit only to survival priorities, extend runway, and reset plans around cash preservation.
Guidance, by today's formula: commit only to survival priorities, extend runway, and reset plans around cash preservation
Maintained by Kanav Jain · reading dated
Operating constraints that applied
- Shorten payback windows and preserve cash.
- Delay speculative hiring or large platform rewrites.
- Route roadmap bets through revenue certainty.
How the period actually split
Derived from 52 weekly readings inside 2023.
- Freezing98% · 51 of 52
- Stormy2% · 1 of 52
Changes in conditions inside 2023
- Apr 21, 2023FreezingtoStormy
- Apr 28, 2023StormytoFreezing
Signals of record
- Short-term borrowing rate (one-month Treasury bill)5.60%
- 2-year Treasury rate4.23%
- 10-year Treasury rate3.88%
- Recession warning gauge (10-year minus 2-year rate)-0.35%
Source: US Treasury Daily Treasury Yield Curve Rates (via FRED) · View series
From the reading list, published in 2023
- Update on Meta's Year of Efficiency — Mark Zuckerberg, Mar 2023
- The Product Momentum Gap — Dave Martin and Andrea Saez, Oct 2023
These come from the product management reading list. It places each title on the conditions of the month it came out.
Quarter by quarter
- Q1 2023 — Freezinglock discretionary spend, extend runway, and demand tighter payback before expanding plans
- Q2 2023 — Freezinglock discretionary spend, extend runway, and demand tighter payback before expanding plans
- Q3 2023 — Freezinglock discretionary spend, extend runway, and demand tighter payback before expanding plans
- Q4 2023 — Freezinglock discretionary spend, extend runway, and demand tighter payback before expanding plans
Browse another year
What are conditions now?
2023 is a closed record. The weekly brief has the current conditions, this week's move and the lines that would change it.
Open this week's brief