Conditions in Q3 2025
This is a reconstruction: what today's published formula says about Q3 2025, not guidance we published at the time. Whether began publishing weekly briefs in the week of Jul 27, 2026.
Cloudy for all 13 weekly readings.
Cloudy: Capital is expensive but funding stays selective. Operate for efficiency. The job this quarter is to put revenue that repeats first, cut fixed cost, and order new bets by how easily they can be undone.
Guidance, by today's formula: put revenue that repeats first, cut fixed cost, and order new bets by how easily they can be undone
Maintained by Kanav Jain · reading dated
Operating constraints that applied
- Focus on margin expansion and retention.
- Cut low-leverage experiments.
- Convert demand with tighter sales cycles.
How the period actually split
Derived from 13 weekly readings inside Q3 2025.
- Cloudy100% · 13 of 13
Changes in conditions inside Q3 2025
Conditions held at Cloudy for the whole period.
Signals of record
- Short-term borrowing rate (one-month Treasury bill)4.20%
- 2-year Treasury rate3.60%
- 10-year Treasury rate4.16%
- Recession warning gauge (10-year minus 2-year rate)0.56%
Source: US Treasury Daily Treasury Yield Curve Rates (via FRED) · View series
From the reading list, published in Q3 2025
- The AI Product Playbook — Marily Nika and Diego Granados, Sep 2025
These come from the product management reading list. It places each title on the conditions of the month it came out.
Browse another year
What are conditions now?
Q3 2025 is a closed record. The weekly brief has the current conditions, this week's move and the lines that would change it.
Open this week's brief