Explain why
Expansion regime is supported by current macro readings.
Signals are live; use them to confirm thresholds and trigger alerts.
- Regime: Expansion
- Trust: Verified live feed
Whether
Market Climate Station
Signals refreshed Feb 23, 2026, 6:59 AM
Whether report
Signal evidence
See the sources and scoring behind the regime call.See full methodology
Plan
Decision
Expansion regime is supported by current macro readings.
Time horizon
Current cycle
Current scores
Tightness, risk appetite, and curve slope at a glance.
- Tightness
- 0/100
Higher values indicate tighter funding conditions.
- Risk appetite
- 64/100
Higher values indicate more risk-on market behavior.
- Curve slope
- 0.61%
10Y minus 2Y Treasury yield spread.
Source links
Open the live feeds behind the current call.
Live Sensor Array
Data provenanceSource: Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED)Record date: Feb 19, 2026Timestamp: Feb 23, 2026, 6:59 AMData age: 0h.Confidence cycle: Full moon (100%)
Primary market pulse
Signal spotlight
Tracking 2 signals.
No measurable change in this window.
Window
Past quarter
Base rate (1M)
3.72%
Δ 3M —
12-month trend (cache)
Base rate uses the 1-month Treasury yield (fallback to 3-month if missing).
Formula: Method notes
Data freshness
Live source- Record date
- Fetched
Curve slope (10Y - 2Y)
0.61%
Δ 3M —
12-month trend (cache)
Curve slope is the 10-year yield minus the 2-year yield, a proxy for risk appetite.
Formula: Method notes
Data freshness
Live source- Record date
- Fetched
Macro signals
Expanded signal pack
Supplement Treasury yields with inflation, labor health, and credit stress indicators.
Cached (medium)
Data provenanceSource: FRED & US TreasuryRecord date: Aug 1, 2024Timestamp: Oct 2, 2024, 12:00 AMData age: 12223h.Confidence cycle: Half moon (64%)
Executive summary
Use this expanded pack to validate the Treasury-led climate call against inflation, labor, and credit stress signals.
Cards are ranked by action impact × recency so the first scan surfaces the most urgent checks.
Methodology
See full methodology.
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Convert evidence into an execution posture.
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Expansion regime is supported by current macro readings.
View current scores