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We read interest rates and credit markets and tell you when to pause or resume hiring, spending and fundraising. Updated every Monday, with an email the day a line is crossed.

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Your decisionsPrivacyAcceptable UseTermsGitHubBuilt byKanav JainNextConsensus© 2026 Whether

  1. This week
  2. /Why it changed
  3. /Recession warning gauge watch
CLOUDY

Recession warning gauge watch

Conditions are tightening. Freeze new commitments and keep spend flexible.

Money is available but pricey.

Pause if
Funding pressure is above 76 or risk appetite falls below 44. Funding pressure is 90 now.
Conditions change if
Funding pressure falls 20 pts from 90 to 70 or below, or risk appetite falls 3 pts from 53 to 50 or below.

How close long-term rates are to dropping below short-term rates, before you commit to anything you cannot undo.

Data as of
Oct 26, 2026
Sources
All sources live
Margin
Risk appetite 3 pts from Freezing · Could change next week
Scored on
The record's inputs · startup-market inputs left outStartup-market inputs would put risk appetite at 42, below its change line. They're left out because their data doesn't go back far enough to check against past months.
·How this is judged

Whether·whether.work

Recession warning gauge · this week

Data as of Oct 26, 2026

0.32

percentage points: the 10-year rate minus the 2-year rate

Against its change line
0.32 percentage points above the zero level where long-term rates drop below short-term rates.
Movement
-0.09 percentage points since Sep 30.
Built from
2-year rate 4.68% · 10-year rate 5.00%

What this changes: The closer this runs to zero, the more a new commitment needs a written way out before it is signed.

What this signal means for each decision

  • Recession warning gauge watch: Hiring
  • Recession warning gauge watch: Roadmap
  • Recession warning gauge watch: Fundraising
  • Recession warning gauge watch: Spending
  • Recession warning gauge watch: New bets