Yield curve flip watch
Guard irreversible bets when the curve approaches a flip zone.
Curve slope · this week
As of Sep 10, 2026
0.4pp
10-year minus 2-year
- Against its threshold
- 0.4pp above the zero line where the curve inverts.
- Week over week
- -0.02pp since last week.
- Built from
- 2-year 4.6% · 10-year 5.0%
What this changes: Irreversible bets are what this guards: the closer the slope runs to zero, the more a commitment should carry an explicit way out before it is signed.
This week's bounded call
- • Posture: Sunny
- • Do now: Conditions tightening — keep proven bets moving, but stage anything new.
- • Pause if: Funding pressure rises above 76 or risk appetite falls below 44
- • Re-open when: Funding pressure above 70 (already true at 74) or risk appetite at or below 50 (56 today).
- • Evidence: 2Y/10Y spread trajectory from the live Treasury payload.