Clear of the line where conditions change
Recession warning gauge
Keep the 6-month payback bar on new spend; a falling gauge is a reason to hold it, not stretch it.
Recession warning gauge watch: Spending
How close long-term rates are to dropping below short-term rates, before you commit to anything you cannot undo.
- Freshness
- Oct 28, 2026, 2:00 AM UTC
- Trust
- Margin: clear of the line (Oct 28, 2026, 2:00 AM UTC). Fine to act on this week.
This week's guidance
- • Guidance: Approve spending only if it pays back inside 6 months.
- • Do now: Before you approve any optional spend, work out how long it takes to pay back. 6 months is the bar.
- • Pause if: Pause new discretionary spend if funding pressure is above 76. Funding pressure is 90 now.
- • Resume when: Resume new spend when funding pressure falls below 66 and the payback figures still hold.
- Funding pressure, out of 100:
- 0 = easier funding · 100 = harder funding
- Risk appetite, out of 100:
- 0 = risk-averse investors · 100 = risk-hungry investors
Trust and evidence
Conditions: Cloudy · Margin: clear of the line · Data as of Oct 26, 2026 · checked Oct 28, 2026, 2:00 AM UTC
Copy this decision brief
What to say when someone asks why.