Freezing
The evidence behind this week's guidance.
Checked Oct 9, 2026, 6:29 PM UTC
| Signal | Since Sep 29 | Against its line | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| Funding pressureConfirms laterGoverns: Hiring, Fundraising, Spending | Since Sep 29No change |
| How hard it is right now to take on commitments that pay back slowly |
What would change this guidance: each score’s pause and resume lines, on the brief.
Latest: Oct 31, 2023 · Last saved reading · 1M 5.56% · 3M 5.59% · 2Y 5.07% · 10Y 4.88%
The charts plot month-end readings.
Recession warning gauge over time
Ten-year minus two-year rate, one block per period: grey is normal, faint red is flattening, red is inverted.
Oct 2023 month-end: -0.19pp
Rates by term
What the government pays to borrow, by how long it is borrowing for.
Vertical scale -0.20 to 5.79%
Steepness against level
Each dot is one month: across is the two-year rate, up is the gap between the ten-year and two-year rates. The dots stay monthly whichever period you pick above.
X -0.09 to 5.27% · Y -1.16 to 2.76pp
Older months fade back and arrowheads follow the direction of travel, so the path shows direction as well as position.
Inversion timeline
How far each spread sits above or below zero. Below zero is an inversion.
10Y−2Y -0.19pp · 2Y−3M -0.52pp
Vertical scale -1.22 to 2.76pp
Biggest monthly rate moves
The months the two-year and ten-year rates moved most, month-end to month-end, largest first.
Each line is the gap between what the U.S. government pays to borrow long-term and what it pays short-term. When a line drops below zero, short-term borrowing costs more than long-term, the pattern that has run ahead of most U.S. recessions. The last 12 month-end readings show whether that pressure is easing or deepening.
Month-end readings from the archive, so the latest figure here is the last completed month rather than this week’s score above.
Funding pressure
12 mo · 36–90
90/1000 over 12 mo
at Oct 2026 month-end
Risk appetite
12 mo · 45–70
53/100-7 over 12 mo
at Oct 2026 month-end
Past months
The page loads the last Treasury reading on or before it and shows that month's guidance.
This page is showing October 2023. This week's reading is dated Oct 31, 2023.
What it meant · Freezing
Money is expensive and lenders are pulling back. Survive first, grow later.
Latest reading
Months available
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Past conditions
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Sunny
Nov 2021–Feb 2022
Stormy
Mar–Aug 2022
Closest of 4 reference cycles on the four readings below. A resemblance in the inputs, not a forecast of the outcome.
| Reading | Q3 2007 | This week |
|---|---|---|
| Short-term borrowing rate | 5.25% | 5.56% |
| Recession warning gauge (10-year minus 2-year rate) | -0.25% | -0.19% |
| Funding pressure | 70/100 | 100/100 |
| Risk appetite | 40/100 | 32/100 |
The Fossil Record · What a product's shape says about the money it was built with
With money this expensive, it is worth checking whether any of these still shape your budget.
| Area | Built when money was cheap | Built when money was expensive | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Infrastructure | Microservices sprawl and heavy coordination | Consolidated monoliths and fewer moving parts | “Coordination tax is a headcount tax. Cheap money pays for it; expensive money forces simplification.” |
| Support | Live chat, phone support, and concierge workflows | Self-serve help centers and AI deflection | “In growth climates, users are assets to retain. In tight climates, support is a cost to control.” |
| Data | Store everything, keep logs forever |
| Risk appetiteMoves firstGoverns: Roadmap, Fundraising, New bets |
|---|
| Since Sep 29from22+10 points since Sep 29. All of it came from the yield curve. |
|
| How willing markets are to fund risk and faster expansion |
| Short-term borrowing rateFeeds into Funding pressure | Since Sep 29No change |
| Rates are the biggest single input to funding pressure |
|---|
| Recession warning gaugeMoves firstFeeds into Risk appetite, and Funding pressure once inverted | Since Sep 29from-0.44pp+0.25pp since Sep 29. |
| The earliest sign of whether this week's conditions will hold |
|---|
Dashed zero line; below it, the curve is inverted. 10Y−2Y has been inverted 12 of 12 months, 2Y−3M 11 of 12.
Freezing
Sep 2022–Oct 2023
Longest held
Freezing (14 months).
Cycle notes are editorial summaries of that period's public record, not a measured sample of companies. Compare against any past month →
| Retention policies with hard delete windows |
| “Data is only an asset when you can afford to mine it. Otherwise it is a storage bill.” |
| Pricing | Free tiers optimized for reach | Reverse trials that convert to paid quickly | “Free users are marketing spend. Tight capital means you cut marketing and protect cash flow.” |
| Org chart | Thick middle management layers | Player-coaches with wider spans | “Management layers help retain talent in a tight labor market. In slack markets, output beats retention.” |
| Roadmap | Moonshots and optionality bets | Table-stakes parity investments | “Optionality is a luxury good. You buy lottery tickets only when cash is plentiful.” |