What changed

Every signal this week, against its line and Aug 31
Signal	Since Aug 31	Against its line	Why it matters
Risk appetiteMoves firstGoverns: Roadmap, Fundraising, New bets	Since Aug 31No change	This week 56 of 100 Change line 50 · 6 pts above	How willing investors are to fund hiring ahead of revenue

What would change this guidance: each score’s pause and resume lines, on the brief.

Past changes — How long conditions have held; a hiring plan outlasts one week's number
Past months — What the guidance said in past months, to test a hiring plan against

Charts, past months and checks

What are interest rates doing? 1-month rate 4.02%, up from 3.85% on Aug 31

Latest: Sep 30, 2026 · Last saved reading · 1M 4.02% · 3M 4.20% · 2Y 4.88% · 10Y 5.29%

The charts plot month-end readings.

1M, 3M, 2Y, 10Y: How long the government is borrowing for: one/three months, two/ten years.
10Y−2Y: Ten-year rate minus two-year rate.
2Y−3M: Two-year rate minus three-month rate.
pp: Percentage point — the unit of a gap between two rates: 5% minus 4% is 1pp.
bp: Basis point — one hundredth of a percentage point.

Recession warning gauge over time

Ten-year minus two-year rate, one block per period: grey is normal, faint red is flattening, red is inverted.

Sep 2026 month-end: 0.41pp

Rates by term

What the government pays to borrow, by how long it is borrowing for.

MonthlyYearly

Jan 2012May 2019Sep 2026

1M 4.02%3M 4.20%2Y 4.88%10Y 5.29%

Vertical scale -0.20 to 5.80%

Steepness against level

Each dot is one month: across is the two-year rate, up is the gap between the ten-year and two-year rates. The dots stay monthly whichever period you pick above.

X -0.09 to 5.27% · Y -1.16 to 2.76pp

Older months fade back and arrowheads follow the direction of travel, so the path shows direction as well as position.

Inversion timeline

How far each spread sits above or below zero. Below zero is an inversion.

Jan 2012May 2019Sep 2026

10Y−2Y 0.41pp · 2Y−3M 0.68pp

Vertical scale -1.40 to 2.76pp

Biggest monthly rate moves

The months the two-year and ten-year rates moved most, month-end to month-end, largest first.

Mar 2022 · 2Y +84 bp · 10Y +49 bp
Sep 2022 · 2Y +77 bp · 10Y +68 bp
Mar 2023 · 2Y -75 bp · 10Y -44 bp
Mar 2020 · 2Y -63 bp · 10Y -43 bp
Feb 2023 · 2Y +60 bp · 10Y +40 bp
Apr 2022 · 2Y +42 bp · 10Y +57 bp
Aug 2022 · 2Y +56 bp · 10Y +48 bp
Sep 2026 · 2Y +54 bp · 10Y +54 bp
Nov 2016 · 2Y +25 bp · 10Y +53 bp
Aug 2019 · 2Y -39 bp · 10Y -52 bp

Has the yield curve inverted in the last year? Yes: 2Y−3M below zero in 5 of 12 months, 10Y−2Y in none

Each line is the gap between what the U.S. government pays to borrow long-term and what it pays short-term. When a line drops below zero, short-term borrowing costs more than long-term, the pattern that has run ahead of most U.S. recessions. The last 12 month-end readings show whether that pressure is easing or deepening.

How have the two scores moved this year? Funding pressure unchanged at 90, risk appetite down 7 to 53 (12 months to Oct 2026)

Month-end readings from the archive, so the latest figure here is the last completed month rather than this week’s score above.

Funding pressure
12 mo · 36–90
90/1000 over 12 mo
at Oct 2026 month-end
Risk appetite
12 mo · 45–70
53/100-7 over 12 mo
at Oct 2026 month-end

What did the brief say in an earlier month? 3 changes across the last 24 months

Past months

Pick a month

The page loads the last Treasury reading on or before it and shows that month's guidance.

Back to this week

This page is showing September 2026. This week's reading is dated Sep 30, 2026.

What it meant · Cloudy

Money is expensive and investors are picky. Run lean.

Clear the pick Latest month

Latest reading

Sep 30, 2026

Months available

Jan 31, 2012 → Sep 30, 2026

Past conditions

Conditions, month by month, over 24 months

Pick a month to load it.

Showing:: Sep 2026

Freezing

Oct 2024–Apr 2025

Cloudy

May–Nov 2025

Which past cycle looks most like this one? Q3 2007 · High rates, recession warning about to fire

Closest of 4 reference cycles on the four readings below. A resemblance in the inputs, not a forecast of the outcome.

Match coordinates, reference cycle against this week
Reading	Q3 2007	This week
Short-term borrowing rate	5.25%	4.02%
Recession warning gauge (10-year minus 2-year rate)	-0.25%	0.41%
Funding pressure	70/100	90/100
Risk appetite	40/100	56/100

Common mistake then: Hired enterprise sales ahead of a fourth-quarter rebound that did not come, as enterprise buying cycles lengthened.
What held up then: Moved to annual contracts paid up front, with a 15% discount for doing so; turned open engineering roles into 6-month contract-to-hire positions.
What marked the turn: The recession warning gauge climbing back above +0.25%, with funding pressure falling two months in a row, marked the safe time to expand again.

Which habits from the zero-rate years still shape your company? Infrastructure, support, data, pricing, org chart, and roadmap

The Fossil Record · What a product's shape says about the money it was built with

With money this expensive, it is worth checking whether any of these still shape your budget.

Area	Built when money was cheap	Built when money was expensive	Why
Infrastructure	Microservices sprawl and heavy coordination	Consolidated monoliths and fewer moving parts	“Coordination tax is a headcount tax. Cheap money pays for it; expensive money forces simplification.”
Support	Live chat, phone support, and concierge workflows	Self-serve help centers and AI deflection	“In growth climates, users are assets to retain. In tight climates, support is a cost to control.”
Data	Store everything, keep logs forever

Why the weekly brief changed

Why the weekly brief changed

What changed

Charts, past months and checks

Pick a month

Conditions, month by month, over 24 months