What changed

Every signal this week, against its line and Mar 29
Signal	Since Mar 29	Against its line	Why it matters
Risk appetiteMoves firstGoverns: Roadmap, Fundraising, New bets	Since Mar 29from59-1 points since Mar 29.	This week 58 of 100 Change line 50 · 8 pts above	How willing investors are to fund hiring ahead of revenue

What would change this guidance: each score’s pause and resume lines, on the brief.

Past changes — How long conditions have held; a hiring plan outlasts one week's number
Past months — What the guidance said in past months, to test a hiring plan against

Charts, past months and checks

What are interest rates doing? 1-month rate 1.65%, up from 1.63% on Mar 29

Latest: Apr 30, 2018 · Last saved reading · 1M 1.65% · 3M 1.87% · 2Y 2.49% · 10Y 2.95%

The charts plot month-end readings.

1M, 3M, 2Y, 10Y: How long the government is borrowing for: one/three months, two/ten years.
10Y−2Y: Ten-year rate minus two-year rate.
2Y−3M: Two-year rate minus three-month rate.
pp: Percentage point — the unit of a gap between two rates: 5% minus 4% is 1pp.
bp: Basis point — one hundredth of a percentage point.

Recession warning gauge over time

Ten-year minus two-year rate, one block per period: grey is normal, faint red is flattening, red is inverted.

Apr 2018 month-end: 0.46pp

Rates by term

What the government pays to borrow, by how long it is borrowing for.

MonthlyYearly

Jan 2012Feb 2015Apr 2018

1M 1.65%3M 1.87%2Y 2.49%10Y 2.95%

Vertical scale -0.20 to 3.24%

Steepness against level

Each dot is one month: across is the two-year rate, up is the gap between the ten-year and two-year rates. The dots stay monthly whichever period you pick above.

X 0.02 to 2.69% · Y -0.10 to 2.76pp

Older months fade back and arrowheads follow the direction of travel, so the path shows direction as well as position.

Inversion timeline

How far each spread sits above or below zero. Below zero is an inversion.

Jan 2012Feb 2015Apr 2018

10Y−2Y 0.46pp · 2Y−3M 0.62pp

Vertical scale -0.10 to 2.76pp

Biggest monthly rate moves

The months the two-year and ten-year rates moved most, month-end to month-end, largest first.

Nov 2016 · 2Y +25 bp · 10Y +53 bp
Jan 2015 · 2Y -20 bp · 10Y -49 bp
May 2013 · 2Y +8 bp · 10Y +46 bp
Jan 2014 · 2Y -4 bp · 10Y -37 bp
May 2012 · 2Y 0 bp · 10Y -36 bp
Jun 2013 · 2Y +6 bp · 10Y +36 bp
Jun 2016 · 2Y -29 bp · 10Y -35 bp
Jan 2016 · 2Y -30 bp · 10Y -33 bp
Jan 2018 · 2Y +25 bp · 10Y +32 bp
Feb 2015 · 2Y +16 bp · 10Y +32 bp

Has the yield curve inverted in the last year? No: neither spread below zero in the last 12 months

Each line is the gap between what the U.S. government pays to borrow long-term and what it pays short-term. When a line drops below zero, short-term borrowing costs more than long-term, the pattern that has run ahead of most U.S. recessions. The last 12 month-end readings show whether that pressure is easing or deepening.

How have the two scores moved this year? Funding pressure unchanged at 90, risk appetite down 7 to 53 (12 months to Oct 2026)

Month-end readings from the archive, so the latest figure here is the last completed month rather than this week’s score above.

Funding pressure
12 mo · 36–90
90/1000 over 12 mo
at Oct 2026 month-end
Risk appetite
12 mo · 45–70
53/100-7 over 12 mo
at Oct 2026 month-end

What did the brief say in an earlier month? No change across the last 24 months

Past months

Pick a month

The page loads the last Treasury reading on or before it and shows that month's guidance.

Back to this week

This page is showing April 2018. This week's reading is dated Apr 30, 2018.

What it meant · Sunny

Money is easy to get and investors are keen. The weekly guidance sets how fast to go.

Clear the pick Latest month

Latest reading

Apr 30, 2018

Months available

Jan 31, 2012 → Sep 30, 2026

Past conditions

Conditions, month by month, over 24 months

Pick a month to load it.

Showing:: Apr 2018

Sunny

May 2016–Apr 2018

Which past cycle looks most like this one? Q2 2021 · Near-zero rates, easy money

Closest of 4 reference cycles on the four readings below. A resemblance in the inputs, not a forecast of the outcome.

Match coordinates, reference cycle against this week
Reading	Q2 2021	This week
Short-term borrowing rate	0.25%	1.65%
Recession warning gauge (10-year minus 2-year rate)	1.20%	0.46%
Funding pressure	25/100	0/100
Risk appetite	85/100	58/100

Common mistake then: Hired fast without the onboarding to support it; output per person fell and fixed costs swelled.
What held up then: Raised enough for several years while borrowing cost almost nothing; signed long-term contracts with large anchor customers.
What marked the turn: Inflation rising above 3.5%, and the gap between long- and short-term rates narrowing, marked the end of cheap money.

Which habits from the zero-rate years still shape your company? Infrastructure, support, data, pricing, org chart, and roadmap

The Fossil Record · What a product's shape says about the money it was built with

A way to check how your company is set up against habits from low-rate and high-rate years.

Area	Built when money was cheap	Built when money was expensive	Why
Infrastructure	Microservices sprawl and heavy coordination	Consolidated monoliths and fewer moving parts	“Coordination tax is a headcount tax. Cheap money pays for it; expensive money forces simplification.”
Support	Live chat, phone support, and concierge workflows	Self-serve help centers and AI deflection	“In growth climates, users are assets to retain. In tight climates, support is a cost to control.”
Data	Store everything, keep logs forever

Why the weekly brief changed

Why the weekly brief changed

What changed

Charts, past months and checks

Pick a month

Conditions, month by month, over 24 months