What changed

Every signal this week, against its line and Jan 31
Signal	Since Jan 31	Against its line	Why it matters
Recession warning gaugeMoves firstFeeds into Risk appetite, and Funding pressure once inverted	Since Jan 31from0.18pp+0.09pp since Jan 31.	This week 0.27pp Inversion line 0.00pp · 0.27pp above	The earliest read on whether growth is slowing

What would change this guidance: each score’s pause and resume lines, on the brief.

Past changes — How the last few changes in conditions played out
Raw source data — Check the growth inputs at their source

Charts, past months and checks

What are interest rates doing? 1-month rate 1.45%, down from 1.56% on Jan 31

Latest: Feb 28, 2020 · Last saved reading · 1M 1.45% · 3M 1.27% · 2Y 0.86% · 10Y 1.13%

The charts plot month-end readings.

1M, 3M, 2Y, 10Y: How long the government is borrowing for: one/three months, two/ten years.
10Y−2Y: Ten-year rate minus two-year rate.
2Y−3M: Two-year rate minus three-month rate.
pp: Percentage point — the unit of a gap between two rates: 5% minus 4% is 1pp.
bp: Basis point — one hundredth of a percentage point.

Recession warning gauge over time

Ten-year minus two-year rate, one block per period: grey is normal, faint red is flattening, red is inverted.

Feb 2020 month-end: 0.27pp

Rates by term

What the government pays to borrow, by how long it is borrowing for.

MonthlyYearly

Jan 2012Jan 2016Feb 2020

1M 1.45%3M 1.27%2Y 0.86%10Y 1.13%

Vertical scale -0.20 to 3.35%

Steepness against level

Each dot is one month: across is the two-year rate, up is the gap between the ten-year and two-year rates. The dots stay monthly whichever period you pick above.

X 0.02 to 3.07% · Y -0.10 to 2.76pp

Older months fade back and arrowheads follow the direction of travel, so the path shows direction as well as position.

Inversion timeline

How far each spread sits above or below zero. Below zero is an inversion.

Jan 2012Jan 2016Feb 2020

10Y−2Y 0.27pp · 2Y−3M -0.41pp

Vertical scale -0.59 to 2.76pp

Biggest monthly rate moves

The months the two-year and ten-year rates moved most, month-end to month-end, largest first.

Nov 2016 · 2Y +25 bp · 10Y +53 bp
Aug 2019 · 2Y -39 bp · 10Y -52 bp
Jan 2015 · 2Y -20 bp · 10Y -49 bp
Feb 2020 · 2Y -47 bp · 10Y -38 bp
May 2013 · 2Y +8 bp · 10Y +46 bp
Jan 2020 · 2Y -25 bp · 10Y -41 bp
Jan 2014 · 2Y -4 bp · 10Y -37 bp
May 2019 · 2Y -32 bp · 10Y -37 bp
May 2012 · 2Y 0 bp · 10Y -36 bp
Jun 2013 · 2Y +6 bp · 10Y +36 bp

Has the yield curve inverted in the last year? Yes: 2Y−3M below zero in 10 of 12 months, 10Y−2Y in none

Each line is the gap between what the U.S. government pays to borrow long-term and what it pays short-term. When a line drops below zero, short-term borrowing costs more than long-term, the pattern that has run ahead of most U.S. recessions. The last 12 month-end readings show whether that pressure is easing or deepening.

Dashed zero line; below it, the curve is inverted. 10Y−2Y has been inverted 0 of 12 months, 2Y−3M 10 of 12.

How have the two scores moved this year? Funding pressure unchanged at 90, risk appetite down 7 to 53 (12 months to Oct 2026)

Month-end readings from the archive, so the latest figure here is the last completed month rather than this week’s score above.

Funding pressure
12 mo · 36–90
90/1000 over 12 mo
at Oct 2026 month-end
Risk appetite
12 mo · 45–70
53/100-7 over 12 mo
at Oct 2026 month-end

What did the brief say in an earlier month? 1 change across the last 24 months

Past months

Pick a month

The page loads the last Treasury reading on or before it and shows that month's guidance.

Back to this week

This page is showing February 2020. This week's reading is dated Feb 28, 2020.

What it meant · Stormy

Money is cheaper, but investors are wary. Be the safe choice.

Clear the pick Latest month

Latest reading

Feb 28, 2020

Months available

Jan 31, 2012 → Sep 30, 2026

Past conditions

Conditions, month by month, over 24 months

Pick a month to load it.

Showing:: Feb 2020

Sunny

Mar–Nov 2018

Stormy

Dec 2018–Feb 2020

Which past cycle looks most like this one? Q4 2018 · A rate-rise scare mid-expansion

Closest of 4 reference cycles on the four readings below. A resemblance in the inputs, not a forecast of the outcome.

Match coordinates, reference cycle against this week
Reading	Q4 2018	This week
Short-term borrowing rate	2.50%	1.45%
Recession warning gauge (10-year minus 2-year rate)	0.15%	0.27%
Funding pressure	62/100	0/100
Risk appetite	35/100	31/100

Common mistake then: Froze product releases and cut marketing spend in a panic, right before the Federal Reserve stopped raising rates.
What held up then: Kept shipping core product while spending elsewhere was cut; moved annual cloud contracts to month-to-month.
What marked the turn: The Federal Reserve's pause, and risk appetite rising past 55, marked the time to restart sales and marketing spending.

Which habits from the zero-rate years still shape your company? Infrastructure, support, data, pricing, org chart, and roadmap

The Fossil Record · What a product's shape says about the money it was built with

A way to check how your company is set up against habits from low-rate and high-rate years.

Area	Built when money was cheap	Built when money was expensive	Why
Infrastructure	Microservices sprawl and heavy coordination	Consolidated monoliths and fewer moving parts	“Coordination tax is a headcount tax. Cheap money pays for it; expensive money forces simplification.”
Support	Live chat, phone support, and concierge workflows	Self-serve help centers and AI deflection	“In growth climates, users are assets to retain. In tight climates, support is a cost to control.”
Data	Store everything, keep logs forever

Why the weekly brief changed

Why the weekly brief changed

What changed

Charts, past months and checks

Pick a month

Conditions, month by month, over 24 months