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How much to trust this week's guidance

Data as of: Oct 30, 2026
Sources: Some sources saved
Room before a change: Risk appetite 5 pts from Freezing · Could change next week
Based on: The same data we used for past months · Startup-market inputs would put risk appetite at 44, below its change line. They're left out because their data doesn't go back far enough to check against past months.

Checked Oct 31, 2026, 2:00 AM UTC

Whether is decision-support software, not an authority. This brief starts from U.S. rates, inflation, labor, credit, and funding conditions. Check the sources and add your own numbers before acting on anything you can't undo.

How the scores are built

The full derivation, from public data series to the weekly guidance.

Where this week’s scores sit against their lines, on the brief.

In plain language — what each score reads, and how the pair sets the conditions

In plain language

1. Read two things off public U.S. market data. Funding pressure is how hard or easy it is for U.S. companies to raise and borrow money. Risk appetite is how willing U.S. investors and buyers are to take risks on new products, hires, and growth bets.

Inputs — all public

Rates: St. Louis Fed (FRED) daily series DGS1MO, DGS2 and DGS10, with DGS3MO standing in when DGS1MO is missing.FRED is the St. Louis Fed’s free public data service; each code names one published series. DGS1MO is the one-month Treasury bill rate, and the cards below call it the short-term borrowing rate. DGS3MO is the three-month bill, DGS2 the two-year rate and DGS10 the ten-year.
Market reads that count: stock-market volatility (the VIX) and the Chicago Fed financial conditions index.
Shown, not counted: the high-yield credit spread, the venture funding pace and the tech-layoff trend. The record has no month-end history to score them against.

Funding pressure · 0–100 · cost of money

min(90, (short-term borrowing rate − 3.5) × 180) The short-term borrowing rate is read in percent.
+ min(25, inversion depth × 50) when the recession warning gauge (10-year minus 2-year rate) is inverted: the ten-year rate is below the two-year. Inversion depth is how far below, in percentage points.
+ min(60, (91-day rise in the short-term borrowing rate − 0.4) × 120) when 91 days of rate history are available. This is the speed term: rates rising fast count before their level alone reaches the ramp above.
Stress add-ons: a high-yield credit spread ≥ 4.5% adds up to +15; the Chicago Fed financial conditions index ≥ 0 adds up to +10. The spread is shown, not counted.The high-yield credit spread is the extra interest riskier companies pay to borrow, over the government’s rate. The Chicago Fed index summarises borrowing conditions across markets: zero is average, above zero is tighter than average.

Risk appetite · 0–100 · willingness to fund risk

Recession warning gauge, mapped linearly: -1% → 0, +1.5% → 100. The further the ten-year rate sits above the two-year, the more willing lenders are to wait for a return.
Deductions: the VIX ≥ 20 subtracts up to 20; venture funding pace ≤ -5% subtracts up to 10; the tech layoff index ≥ 65 subtracts up to 12. The funding pace and the layoff index are shown, not counted.The VIX is the stock market’s own forecast of turbulence over the next month; higher means more expected swings. Venture funding pace is the quarter-over-quarter change in venture money invested. The layoff index is a composite of tech layoff reports; higher means more layoffs.
Market-stress cap: when the VIX has averaged 30 or more over its last 10 readings, the score is capped at the line where conditions change (50); between 22 and 30 it is capped at 55. It uses an average rather than one day, so a single spike does not cap a week. While the cap holds, extreme market stress sets the ceiling, not the rates.

Conditions, operating latitude, margin

Conditions:At the narrowest margin conditions do not change at all.
Operating latitude: 0.7 × risk appetite + 0.3 × (100 − funding pressure)The 0–100 score beside each month on the history page and in the copied and Slack briefs. It measures room to hire, spend and commit, blended from risk appetite and funding pressure; higher means more room.
Room before a change: how far the scores sit from the nearest line where conditions would change, counted in funding-pressure points. A risk-appetite point is worth 4.5, because it stands for a 4.5-times larger move in rates: risk appetite 6 points from its line is 27 points away.
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How much to trust this week's guidance

How the scores are built

How much to trust this week's guidance

How the scores are built

Sources and last update

How close conditions are to changing

What to watch

Escalation rule

How often a close call held

What would make this recommendation wrong?

Active warnings

Revisit checklist

How much to trust this week's guidance

System status

How the scores are built

How much to trust this week's guidance

System status

How the scores are built

Sources and last update

How close conditions are to changing

What to watch

Escalation rule

How often a close call held

What would make this recommendation wrong?

Active warnings

Revisit checklist