Whether

Market Climate Station

Signals refreshed Oct 2, 2024, 12:00 AM

Historical modeReturn to live

Historical mode active · 2024-10

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Whether report

Signal evidence

See the sources and scoring behind the regime call.See full methodology

View current scores

Explain why

Scarcity regime is supported by current macro readings.

Use this page to translate the current signal posture into team actions.

  • Regime: Scarcity
  • Trust: Historical snapshot
Review evidence trail →

Plan

    Decision

    Current scores

    Tightness, risk appetite, and curve slope at a glance.

    Tightness
    94/100

    Higher values indicate tighter funding conditions.

    Risk appetite
    26/100

    Higher values indicate more risk-on market behavior.

    Curve slope
    -0.35%

    10Y minus 2Y Treasury yield spread.

    Live Sensor Array

    Data provenanceSource: Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED)Record date: Oct 1, 2024Timestamp: Oct 2, 2024, 12:00 AMData age: 12223h.Confidence cycle: New moon (28%)

    Primary market pulse

    Signal spotlight

    Tracking 2 signals.

    No measurable change in this window.

    Window

    Past quarter

    Base rate (1M)

    5.42%

    Δ 3M —

    Simulated (low)

    12-month trend (cache)

    Base rate uses the 1-month Treasury yield (fallback to 3-month if missing).

    Formula: Method notes

    Data freshness

    Cached snapshot
    Source
    US Treasury Fiscal Data API
    Record date
    Fetched

    Curve slope (10Y - 2Y)

    -0.35%

    Δ 3M —

    Simulated (low)

    12-month trend (cache)

    Curve slope is the 10-year yield minus the 2-year yield, a proxy for risk appetite.

    Formula: Method notes

    Data freshness

    Cached snapshot
    Source
    US Treasury Fiscal Data API
    Record date
    Fetched

    Macro signals

    Expanded signal pack

    Supplement Treasury yields with inflation, labor health, and credit stress indicators.

    Simulated (low)
    Data provenanceSource: FRED & US TreasuryRecord date: Aug 1, 2024Timestamp: Oct 2, 2024, 12:00 AMData age: 12223h.Confidence cycle: New moon (28%)

    Executive summary

    Use this expanded pack to validate the Treasury-led climate call against inflation, labor, and credit stress signals.

    Cards are ranked by action impact × recency so the first scan surfaces the most urgent checks.

    Methodology

    See full methodology.

    See full methodology

    Related pages

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    Command center

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    Related move

    Convert evidence into an execution posture.

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    Current posture

    Scarcity regime is supported by current macro readings.

    View current scores