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Market Climate Station
Signals refreshed Oct 2, 2024, 12:00 AM
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Whether report
Action playbook · Decisions
Run decision guardrails, lock assumptions, and capture counterfactuals.Explore details →
Signals stamped Oct 1, 2024Decision sequence
Now
Run decision shield
Check each move against regime guardrails.
Next
Lock assumptions
Document risk stance, tolerance, and posture.
Later
Run counterfactual view
Stress-test priorities against alternate macro regimes.
Act now
Run decision shieldLock assumptionsDecision
Pressure-test this week's commitments before execution.
Time horizon
This week
Workflow progress
Complete plan → decisions → briefings
Decision Shield
Validate an action
Pressure-test the next move against current market climate physics, then share the verdict.
Data provenanceSource: Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED)Record date: Oct 1, 2024Timestamp: Oct 2, 2024, 12:00 AMData age: 12228h.Confidence cycle: New moon (28%)
Inputs → Verdict → Why → Guardrail → Reversal trigger
Saved scenarios
Store common Decision Shield inputs as presets for faster reviews.
Max 8 presets
No presets yet. Save one to reuse this scenario in future reviews.
Verdict
DANGEROUS
Verdict: Hire is dangerous for a growth team in scarcity conditions.
Copy-ready, shareable verdict.
Why (signals)
- •Base rate: 5.42% is above 5%, so capital is expensive.
- •Curve slope: inverted (-0.35%), signaling caution.
- •Tightness 94 vs risk appetite 26 keeps conditions in scarcity.
Guardrail
New headcount must repay within 90 days through direct revenue or cost savings.
Reversal trigger
Revisit when tightness drops below 70 and risk appetite rises above 50 for 30 consecutive days (current: 94/26).
Assumption locking
Freeze the posture your team is operating under
Lock the posture assumptions to keep debate explicit and prevent silent drift between teams.
Risk posture, threshold tolerance, and stance are stored in the URL.
Use the banner to confirm the lock during reviews.
Operate on the published signals with no bias.
Default tolerance aligned with current thresholds.
Use signal readouts as-is with no narrative overlay.
Not locked yet.
Decision templates
Decision Shield Templates
Default public-data stances by regime
Data provenanceSource: Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED)Record date: Oct 1, 2024Timestamp: Oct 2, 2024, 12:00 AMData age: 12228h.Confidence cycle: New moon (28%)
Executive summary
Use these templates as default decision language when you brief leadership or document approvals.
Decision Memory
Immutable audit trail for decision runs
Each saved Decision Shield run stores inputs, verdict, thresholds, and source links.
No Decision Memory entries yet. Save a Decision Shield verdict to start the audit trail.
Counterfactual view
Test narratives before committing to them
Adjust the base rate and curve slope to preview how the regime and constraints would respond.
BASELINE
Data provenanceSource: Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED)Record date: Oct 1, 2024Timestamp: Oct 2, 2024, 12:00 AMData age: 12228h.Confidence cycle: New moon (28%)
Scenario sliders
Base rate shift (bps)
Current base rate: 5.42% → Scenario: 5.42%.
Curve slope shift (bps)
Current slope: -0.35% → Scenario: -0.35%.
Counterfactual output
Scenario regime: SCARCITY
Tightness 94/100 · Risk appetite 26/100
Scenario deltas
- •Base rate shift: +0bps
- •Curve slope shift: +0bps
- •Tightness change: +0
- •Risk appetite change: +0
- •Regime unchanged: SCARCITY → SCARCITY
Scenario constraints
- •Shorten payback windows and preserve cash.
- •Delay speculative hiring or large platform rewrites.
- •Route roadmap bets through revenue certainty.
Current regime
SCARCITY
Capital is expensive and risk appetite is low. Prioritize survival over growth.
Scenario narrative
Capital is expensive and risk appetite is low. Prioritize survival over growth.
Command center
12 links
All results across actions, pages, and sections.
Playbook = Do now · Pages = Switch surfaces · Sections = Jump within page.
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Playbook
Pages
Sections
12 command center results shown.
Related move
Plan, decisions, and briefings pages are available from here.
Open related page →Current posture
Pressure-test this week's commitments before execution.
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