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Market Climate Station

Signals refreshed Oct 2, 2024, 12:00 AM

Copy-ready leadership brief

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Historical mode active · 2024-10

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Whether report

Action playbook · Briefings

Draft strategy narratives and export leadership-ready briefing kits.Explore details →

Draft strategy brief

Narrate now

Turn the regime signal into a board-ready story.

Use this page to translate the current signal posture into team actions.

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Briefing sections

Now
Draft strategy brief
Frame posture, risks, and recommended moves.
Next
Export briefing kit
Prepare leadership-ready distribution formats.
Later
Customize executive briefing
Tailor the narrative for stakeholder context.

Act now

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Decision

Turn the regime signal into a board-ready story.

Time horizon

Exec review

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Current posture

Turn the regime signal into a board-ready story.

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Workflow progress

Complete plan → decisions → briefings

Strategy brief

Strategy Brief Generator

Macro-only executive narrative ready for leadership updates

Data provenanceSource: Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED)Record date: Oct 1, 2024Timestamp: Oct 2, 2024, 12:00 AMData age: 12225h.Confidence cycle: New moon (28%)

At a glance

Survival posture: protect cash and shorten payback windows.

Capital is expensive and risk appetite is muted. Default to reversible moves and immediate cash conversion.

Focus

Priority now

Protect runway
Monetize existing demand
Cut optionality bets

Monitor

Watch closely

Cash conversion cycle
Down-round signals
Churn spike risk

Trigger

Pivot signals

Curve re-steepens
Base rates fall below tightness band

Full copy-ready narrative

Strategy Brief — Oct 1, 2024
Market climate: SCARCITY

Headline: Survival posture: protect cash and shorten payback windows.
Narrative: Capital is expensive and risk appetite is muted. Default to reversible moves and immediate cash conversion.

Priorities:
• Protect runway
• Monetize existing demand
• Cut optionality bets

Watchlist:
• Cash conversion cycle
• Down-round signals
• Churn spike risk

Reversal triggers:
• Curve re-steepens
• Base rates fall below tightness band

Status

Ready to share in leadership updates.

Public data only. No internal company inputs required.

Export briefs

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Copy ready-made summaries for Slack, email, or slide decks, or print to PDF.

Data provenanceSource: Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED)Record date: Oct 1, 2024Timestamp: Oct 2, 2024, 12:00 AMData age: 12225h.Confidence cycle: New moon (28%)

Slack-ready brief

One pasteable block tuned for status updates.

Open email draft

Slide bullets

Compact bullets sized for quarterly planning decks.

Constraint headlines

Plain-English summary lines that can drop into status updates or exec briefings.

Headline preview

Keep the text intact when sharing to preserve sourcing.

Whether Report Headlines — 2024-10-01
Survival Mode: capital tightness 94/100 with bravery 26/100.

Execution constraints:
• Shorten payback windows and preserve cash.
• Delay speculative hiring or large platform rewrites.
• Route roadmap bets through revenue certainty.

Source: https://api.fiscaldata.treasury.gov/services/api/fiscal_service/v2/accounting/od/daily_treasury_yield_curve

Autonomous agent handoff

Structured JSON plus a ready-to-use prompt for PM assistants and copilots.

Agent payload preview

Keep the JSON intact to preserve provenance and timestamps.

{
  "report_date": "2024-10-01",
  "fetched_at": "2024-10-02T00:00:00Z",
  "source": "https://api.fiscaldata.treasury.gov/services/api/fiscal_service/v2/accounting/od/daily_treasury_yield_curve",
  "regime": {
    "key": "SCARCITY",
    "label": "Survival Mode",
    "description": "Capital is expensive and risk appetite is low. Prioritize survival over growth."
  },
  "scores": {
    "tightness": 94,
    "riskAppetite": 26,
    "baseRateUsed": "1M",
    "baseRate": 5.42,
    "curveSlope": -0.35000000000000053
  },
  "thresholds": {
    "baseRateTightness": 5,
    "tightnessRegime": 70,
    "riskAppetiteRegime": 50
  },
  "constraints": [
    "Shorten payback windows and preserve cash.",
    "Delay speculative hiring or large platform rewrites.",
    "Route roadmap bets through revenue certainty."
  ],
  "data_warnings": [],
  "signals": [
    {
      "id": "BASE_RATE",
      "label": "Base rate (1M)",
      "value": 5.42,
      "unit": "%",
      "record_date": "2024-10-01",
      "fetched_at": "2024-10-02T00:00:00Z",
      "source_url": "https://api.fiscaldata.treasury.gov/services/api/fiscal_service/v2/accounting/od/daily_treasury_yield_curve"
    },
    {
      "id": "CURVE_SLOPE",
      "label": "Curve slope (10Y - 2Y)",
      "value": -0.35000000000000053,
      "unit": "%",
      "record_date": "2024-10-01",
      "fetched_at": "2024-10-02T00:00:00Z",
      "source_url": "https://api.fiscaldata.treasury.gov/services/api/fiscal_service/v2/accounting/od/daily_treasury_yield_curve"
    }
  ],
  "macro_signals": [
    {
      "id": "CPI_YOY",
      "label": "CPI inflation (YoY)",
      "value": 3.7,
      "unit": "%",
      "record_date": "2024-08-01",
      "fetched_at": "2024-10-02T00:00:00Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/"
    },
    {
      "id": "UNEMPLOYMENT_RATE",
      "label": "Unemployment rate (U-3)",
      "value": 4.1,
      "unit": "%",
      "record_date": "2024-09-01",
      "fetched_at": "2024-10-02T00:00:00Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm"
    },
    {
      "id": "BBB_CREDIT_SPREAD",
      "label": "BBB credit spread (OAS)",
      "value": 1.65,
      "unit": "%",
      "record_date": "2024-10-01",
      "fetched_at": "2024-10-02T00:00:00Z",
      "source_url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLC0A4CBBB"
    }
  ],
  "skills": [
    {
      "id": "regime-summary",
      "label": "Regime summary",
      "purpose": "Explain the market climate in plain English with the top macro signals.",
      "inputs": [
        "regime",
        "scores",
        "macro_signals",
        "data_warnings"
      ],
      "outputs": [
        "summary_bullets"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "constraint-translation",
      "label": "Constraint translation",
      "purpose": "Turn constraints into clear guardrails for roadmap, hiring, and pricing.",
      "inputs": [
        "constraints",
        "thresholds",
        "signals"
      ],
      "outputs": [
        "constraint_brief"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "pm-questions",
      "label": "PM question log",
      "purpose": "Surface open questions the PM must answer before acting.",
      "inputs": [
        "constraints",
        "signals",
        "macro_signals"
      ],
      "outputs": [
        "pm_questions"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "pm_handoff": {
    "decision_focus": "Use constraints to validate roadmap, hiring, and pricing moves.",
    "briefing_actions": [
      "Summarize the regime in plain English.",
      "Call out constraints that block or enable new initiatives.",
      "List open questions for the product manager."
    ]
  }
}

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Executive brief

Executive Briefing Suite

Board-ready posture summary and guardrails from public signals

Data provenanceSource: Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED)Record date: Oct 1, 2024Timestamp: Oct 2, 2024, 12:00 AMData age: 12225h.Confidence cycle: New moon (28%)

Board summary

Runway preservation and payback discipline are non-negotiable.

Operate

Guardrails

Do this by default

Pause non-core initiatives without near-term revenue impact.
Demand <90-day payback on discretionary spend.
Concentrate on retention and cash recovery.

Decide

Decision calls

Use these ready-made stances

Hiring: approve only revenue-protecting roles.
Pricing: exchange discounts for upfront cash.
Roadmap: ship stability and monetization only.

Watch

Reversal triggers

Signals to pivot quickly

Curve exits inversion
Policy easing signals stabilize

Guardrail checklist

Ready to share in executive reviews.

Full copy-ready executive memo

Executive Brief — Oct 1, 2024
Market climate: SCARCITY

Summary: Runway preservation and payback discipline are non-negotiable.

Decision guardrails:
• Pause non-core initiatives without near-term revenue impact.
• Demand <90-day payback on discretionary spend.
• Concentrate on retention and cash recovery.

Decision templates:
• Hiring: approve only revenue-protecting roles.
• Pricing: exchange discounts for upfront cash.
• Roadmap: ship stability and monetization only.

Reversal triggers:
• Curve exits inversion
• Policy easing signals stabilize

CXO outputs

Executive function replacement map

Data provenanceSource: Whether internal backlogRecord date: StaticTimestamp: Static catalogData age: Static.Confidence cycle: New moon (28%)

Each module below translates market climate signals into CXO-ready artifacts. Use them to align finance, operations, and product leadership on a shared macro posture.

CFO / Finance Strategy

Capital posture and runway constraints tied to macro climates.

•Runway, burn, and capital efficiency guardrails sourced to Treasury signals.
•Budget planning export with market climate narrative and citation-ready sources.
•Capital availability watchlist with reversal triggers and risk flags.

COO / Operating Strategy

Company-wide execution posture and operating cadence shifts.

•Operating constraint board aligned to climate shifts.
•Cross-functional planning checklist to enforce guardrails.
•Cadence guidance for launch timing, vendor spend, and scaling pace.

CTO & CPO / Strategic Planning

Product and engineering posture aligned to macro physics.

•Roadmap posture toggles (growth vs. efficiency) with market climate guidance.
•Hiring and pricing decision templates tied to live sensors.
•Infrastructure spend guardrails and migration timing signals.

Head of Strategy

Executive briefing and narrative alignment across leadership.

•One-page executive brief with market climate summary, risks, and reversal triggers.
•Planning memo generator for leadership syncs with copy-ready language.
•Historical context pack to explain why posture changed over time.

Command center

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Current posture

Turn the regime signal into a board-ready story.

Draft strategy brief

Action playbook · Briefings

Turn the regime signal into a board-ready story.

Complete plan → decisions → briefings

Strategy Brief Generator

🎯Priority now

👀Watch closely

↩Pivot signals

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Executive Briefing Suite

🛡️Guardrails

🧭Decision calls

↩Reversal triggers

Executive function replacement map

Command center

Priority now

Watch closely

Pivot signals

Guardrails

Decision calls

Reversal triggers