FreezingHistorical snapshot • Data as of Aug 30, 2024
Scenarios
Move two sliders to see what the guidance would be in a different week.
Checked Oct 9, 2026, 6:29 PM UTC
FreezingHistorical snapshot • Data as of Aug 30, 2024
Move two sliders to see what the guidance would be in a different week.
Checked Oct 9, 2026, 6:29 PM UTC
Four preset scenarios. Each sets the short-term borrowing rate and the recession warning gauge (10-year minus 2-year rate).
Funding pressure above 70 and risk appetite below 50: Freezing. Above 70 and above 50: Cloudy. Below 70 and below 50: Stormy. Below 70 and above 50: Sunny.
Conditions
Freezing→FreezingSame conditions as this week
Resume 66Change line 70Pause 76
This week: 90
Pause 44Change line 50Resume 54
This week: 40
Guidance in this scenario
"Don't die."
Tone: High rates, investors pulling back · Money is scarce and slow to come back. Favour work that pays back in weeks, not quarters.
| Area | Action now | Pause if |
|---|---|---|
| Hiring | Only replace people who leave, and hire for roles you can't deliver without | Funding pressure is above 76 or risk appetite is below 44. Funding pressure is 90 and risk appetite is 40 now. |
| Spending | Before you approve any optional spend, work out how long it takes to pay back | Funding pressure is above 76. Funding pressure is 90 now. |
| Fundraising | If you're planning to raise, get your materials ready now so you decide when to go out | Risk appetite is below 44 or funding pressure is above 76. Risk appetite is 40 and funding pressure is 90 now. |
| Roadmap | Keep the core roadmap on schedule, and ship what customers can use this quarter first | Risk appetite is below 44 or two weekly readings in a row come in weaker. Risk appetite is 40 now. |
| New bets | Keep only the experiments you can stop within a week, each with a review date | Risk appetite is below 44 or funding pressure is above 76. Risk appetite is 40 and funding pressure is 90 now. |