{"cadence":"weekly","defaultCadence":"weekly","supportedCadences":["weekly","monthly","quarterly","yearly"],"summary":{"title":"Weekly action summary — Jul 31, 2026","summary":"Expand posture: Capital is cheap and risk appetite is healthy. Move quickly to capture share. Priority: scale the highest-ROI bets, hire deliberately, and keep payback discipline. Confidence: medium (mild signal). Policy override active: Composite disagreement exceeded threshold.. Keep approvals reversible only until signals reconcile.","regime":"EXPANSION","regimeLabel":"Expand","guidance":"scale the highest-ROI bets, hire deliberately, and keep payback discipline","confidence":"MEDIUM","transitionWatch":false,"intensity":"MILD","constraints":["Prioritize reach and learning velocity over perfect finish.","Spend with clear guardrails, even if some experiments fail.","Scale capacity ahead of demand only where leading signals stay strong."],"recordDateLabel":"Jul 31, 2026","provenance":{"sourceLabel":"Canonical ingestion (FRED)","sourceUrl":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS1MO","recordDateLabel":"Jul 30, 2026","timestampLabel":"Aug 1, 2026, 10:44 AM UTC","ageLabel":"3m.","statusLabel":"Canonical snapshot (high confidence)"},"inputs":[{"id":"base-rate","label":"Policy base rate (1M)","value":3.79,"unit":"%","sourceLabel":"FRED CSV (DFF, DGS1MO, DGS3MO, DGS2, DGS10)","sourceUrl":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS1MO","recordDate":"2026-07-30","fetchedAt":"2026-08-01T10:44:44.174Z","notes":"Used as the cost-of-money anchor for tightness scoring."},{"id":"two-year","label":"US Treasury 2Y","value":4.23,"unit":"%","sourceLabel":"FRED CSV (DFF, DGS1MO, DGS3MO, DGS2, DGS10)","sourceUrl":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS1MO","recordDate":"2026-07-30","fetchedAt":"2026-08-01T10:44:44.174Z"},{"id":"ten-year","label":"US Treasury 10Y","value":4.68,"unit":"%","sourceLabel":"FRED CSV (DFF, DGS1MO, DGS3MO, DGS2, DGS10)","sourceUrl":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS1MO","recordDate":"2026-07-30","fetchedAt":"2026-08-01T10:44:44.174Z"},{"id":"curve-slope","label":"Yield curve slope (10Y - 2Y)","value":0.4499999999999993,"unit":"%","sourceLabel":"FRED CSV (DFF, DGS1MO, DGS3MO, DGS2, DGS10)","sourceUrl":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS1MO","recordDate":"2026-07-30","fetchedAt":"2026-08-01T10:44:44.174Z","derivedFrom":"US Treasury 10Y and 2Y yields","notes":"Derived metric used to score risk appetite."}],"structured":{"climate":{"label":"✅ RISK-ON / CAPITAL-LOOSE","summary":["Capital is accessible and risk appetite is healthy.","Expect faster approvals and higher tolerance for bold bets."]},"recommendedMoves":["Prioritize speed and distribution over perfection","Scale proven growth channels and widen market coverage","Move decisively while enforcing payback guardrails"],"executionPriorities":["Growth experiments with clear scaling paths","New market expansion backed by demand signals","Product investments that amplify acquisition"],"watchouts":["Over-optimizing cost at the expense of momentum","Delaying launches while waiting for perfect data","Under-investing in capacity while demand is strong"],"planningLanguage":"“Move quickly on growth bets, maintain payback discipline, and set clear exit criteria before scaling spend.”","executionConstraints":["Prioritize reach and learning velocity over perfect finish.","Spend with clear guardrails, even if some experiments fail.","Scale capacity ahead of demand only where leading signals stay strong."],"governanceParameters":{"hiringThreshold":"VERY_HIGH","paybackWindowTolerance":"SHORTER","rollbackRequirement":"REVERSIBLE_ONLY","approvalVelocity":"SLOWER_STRUCTURED","expansionScope":"CONSTRAINED","experimentationTolerance":"LOW"}},"copy":"Weekly action summary — Jul 31, 2026\nExpand posture: Capital is cheap and risk appetite is healthy. Move quickly to capture share. Priority: scale the highest-ROI bets, hire deliberately, and keep payback discipline. Confidence: medium (mild signal). Policy override active: Composite disagreement exceeded threshold.. Keep approvals reversible only until signals reconcile.\n\n---\nWHETHER · Capital Posture Governance\n\nUpdated Jul 31, 2026\n\n---\n\nMARKET CLIMATE\n\n✅ RISK-ON / CAPITAL-LOOSE\n\nCapital is accessible and risk appetite is healthy.\nExpect faster approvals and higher tolerance for bold bets.\n\n\nContextual, not moral: this is what the environment is rewarding right now.\n\n\n---\n\nRECOMMENDED MOVES FOR PRODUCT TEAMS (NOW)\n\n• Prioritize speed and distribution over perfection\n• Scale proven growth channels and widen market coverage\n• Move decisively while enforcing payback guardrails\n\n\n---\n\nEXECUTION PRIORITIES THAT TRAVEL WELL\n\n• Growth experiments with clear scaling paths\n• New market expansion backed by demand signals\n• Product investments that amplify acquisition\n\n\n---\n\nWATCHOUTS THAT BREAK EXECUTION\n\n• Over-optimizing cost at the expense of momentum\n• Delaying launches while waiting for perfect data\n• Under-investing in capacity while demand is strong\n\n\n---\n\nPLANNING LANGUAGE TO USE\n\n> “Move quickly on growth bets, maintain payback discipline, and set clear exit criteria before scaling spend.”\n\n\n\n---\n\nEXECUTION CONSTRAINTS\n\n• Prioritize reach and learning velocity over perfect finish.\n• Spend with clear guardrails, even if some experiments fail.\n• Scale capacity ahead of demand only where leading signals stay strong.\n\n\n\n---\n\nGOVERNANCE PARAMETER ADJUSTMENTS\n\n• Hiring threshold: VERY_HIGH\n• Payback window tolerance: SHORTER\n• Rollback requirement: REVERSIBLE_ONLY\n• Approval velocity: SLOWER_STRUCTURED\n• Expansion scope: CONSTRAINED\n• Experimentation tolerance: LOW\n\n---\n\nRECOMMENDATION CONFIDENCE\n\nConfidence: Canonical snapshot (high confidence)\nUncertainty: Interpretive and probabilistic guidance; verify assumptions before acting.\n\n\n---\n\nDATA PROVENANCE & QUALITY\n\nSource: Canonical ingestion (FRED) (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS1MO)\nTimestamp: Aug 1, 2026, 10:44 AM UTC\nData age: 3m.\n\nSource: Canonical ingestion (FRED) (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS1MO) · Aug 1, 2026, 10:44 AM UTC · Confidence: Canonical snapshot (high confidence)"},"copy":"Weekly action summary — Jul 31, 2026\nExpand posture: Capital is cheap and risk appetite is healthy. Move quickly to capture share. Priority: scale the highest-ROI bets, hire deliberately, and keep payback discipline. Confidence: medium (mild signal). Policy override active: Composite disagreement exceeded threshold.. Keep approvals reversible only until signals reconcile.\n\n---\nWHETHER · Capital Posture Governance\n\nUpdated Jul 31, 2026\n\n---\n\nMARKET CLIMATE\n\n✅ RISK-ON / CAPITAL-LOOSE\n\nCapital is accessible and risk appetite is healthy.\nExpect faster approvals and higher tolerance for bold bets.\n\n\nContextual, not moral: this is what the environment is rewarding right now.\n\n\n---\n\nRECOMMENDED MOVES FOR PRODUCT TEAMS (NOW)\n\n• Prioritize speed and distribution over perfection\n• Scale proven growth channels and widen market coverage\n• Move decisively while enforcing payback guardrails\n\n\n---\n\nEXECUTION PRIORITIES THAT TRAVEL WELL\n\n• Growth experiments with clear scaling paths\n• New market expansion backed by demand signals\n• Product investments that amplify acquisition\n\n\n---\n\nWATCHOUTS THAT BREAK EXECUTION\n\n• Over-optimizing cost at the expense of momentum\n• Delaying launches while waiting for perfect data\n• Under-investing in capacity while demand is strong\n\n\n---\n\nPLANNING LANGUAGE TO USE\n\n> “Move quickly on growth bets, maintain payback discipline, and set clear exit criteria before scaling spend.”\n\n\n\n---\n\nEXECUTION CONSTRAINTS\n\n• Prioritize reach and learning velocity over perfect finish.\n• Spend with clear guardrails, even if some experiments fail.\n• Scale capacity ahead of demand only where leading signals stay strong.\n\n\n\n---\n\nGOVERNANCE PARAMETER ADJUSTMENTS\n\n• Hiring threshold: VERY_HIGH\n• Payback window tolerance: SHORTER\n• Rollback requirement: REVERSIBLE_ONLY\n• Approval velocity: SLOWER_STRUCTURED\n• Expansion scope: CONSTRAINED\n• Experimentation tolerance: LOW\n\n---\n\nRECOMMENDATION CONFIDENCE\n\nConfidence: Canonical snapshot (high confidence)\nUncertainty: Interpretive and probabilistic guidance; verify assumptions before acting.\n\n\n---\n\nDATA PROVENANCE & QUALITY\n\nSource: Canonical ingestion (FRED) (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS1MO)\nTimestamp: Aug 1, 2026, 10:44 AM UTC\nData age: 3m.\n\nSource: Canonical ingestion (FRED) (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS1MO) · Aug 1, 2026, 10:44 AM UTC · Confidence: Canonical snapshot (high confidence)","provenance":{"sourceLabel":"Canonical ingestion (FRED)","sourceUrl":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS1MO","recordDateLabel":"Jul 30, 2026","timestampLabel":"Aug 1, 2026, 10:44 AM UTC","ageLabel":"3m.","statusLabel":"Canonical snapshot (high confidence)"},"recordDateLabel":"Jul 31, 2026","agentHandoff":{"payload":{"report_date":"2026-07-30","fetched_at":"2026-08-01T10:44:44.174Z","source":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS1MO","regime":{"key":"EXPANSION","label":"Expand","description":"Capital is cheap and risk appetite is healthy. Move quickly to capture share."},"scores":{"tightness":52,"riskAppetite":58,"baseRateUsed":"1M","baseRate":3.79,"curveSlope":0.4499999999999993},"thresholds":{"baseRateTightness":3.5,"tightnessRegime":70,"riskAppetiteRegime":50},"constraints":["Prioritize reach and learning velocity over perfect finish.","Spend with clear guardrails, even if some experiments fail.","Scale capacity ahead of demand only where leading signals stay strong."],"data_warnings":[],"signals":[{"id":"BASE_RATE","label":"Base rate (1M)","value":3.79,"unit":"%","record_date":"2026-07-30","fetched_at":"2026-08-01T10:44:44.174Z","source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS1MO"},{"id":"CURVE_SLOPE","label":"Curve slope (10Y - 2Y)","value":0.4499999999999993,"unit":"%","record_date":"2026-07-30","fetched_at":"2026-08-01T10:44:44.174Z","source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS1MO"}],"macro_signals":[{"id":"CPI_YOY","label":"CPI inflation (YoY)","value":3.4635307293854063,"unit":"%","record_date":"2026-06-01","fetched_at":"2026-08-01T08:36:19.000Z","source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL"},{"id":"UNEMPLOYMENT_RATE","label":"Unemployment rate (U-3)","value":4.2,"unit":"%","record_date":"2026-06-01","fetched_at":"2026-08-01T08:36:19.000Z","source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE"},{"id":"BBB_CREDIT_SPREAD","label":"BBB credit spread (OAS)","value":1.64,"unit":"%","record_date":"2026-07-30","fetched_at":"2026-08-01T08:36:19.000Z","source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAA10Y"},{"id":"HY_CREDIT_SPREAD","label":"High yield credit spread (OAS)","value":2.84,"unit":"%","record_date":"2026-07-30","fetched_at":"2026-08-01T08:36:19.000Z","source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLH0A0HYM2"},{"id":"CHICAGO_FCI","label":"Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index","value":-0.554,"unit":"index","record_date":"2026-07-24","fetched_at":"2026-08-01T08:36:19.000Z","source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NFCI"},{"id":"VIX_INDEX","label":"CBOE volatility index (VIX)","value":17.09,"unit":"index","record_date":"2026-07-30","fetched_at":"2026-08-01T10:44:44.174Z","source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/VIXCLS"},{"id":"VC_FUNDING_VELOCITY","label":"VC funding velocity (quarterly trend)","value":-4.5,"unit":"%","record_date":"2026-02-01","fetched_at":"2026-02-02T00:00:00Z","source_url":"https://www.crunchbase.com/"},{"id":"TECH_LAYOFF_TREND","label":"Tech layoff trend","value":62,"unit":"index","record_date":"2026-02-01","fetched_at":"2026-02-02T00:00:00Z","source_url":"https://layoffs.fyi/"},{"id":"SAAS_VALUATION_MULTIPLE","label":"Public SaaS EV/Revenue median","value":5.9,"unit":"x","record_date":"2026-02-01","fetched_at":"2026-02-02T00:00:00Z","source_url":"https://www.meritechcapital.com/software-public-comps"},{"id":"EARNINGS_REVISION_INDEX","label":"Tech earnings revision index","value":48,"unit":"index","record_date":"2026-02-01","fetched_at":"2026-02-02T00:00:00Z","source_url":"https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/"},{"id":"AI_COMPUTE_COST_TREND","label":"AI compute cost trend","value":-9.2,"unit":"%","record_date":"2026-02-01","fetched_at":"2026-02-02T00:00:00Z","source_url":"https://cloud.google.com/compute/gpus-pricing"},{"id":"REGULATORY_RISK_TRACKER","label":"AI/platform regulatory risk tracker","value":41,"unit":"index","record_date":"2026-02-01","fetched_at":"2026-02-02T00:00:00Z","source_url":"https://artificialintelligenceact.eu/"}],"decision_rules":[{"area":"hiring","area_label":"Hiring","recommendation":"Selective hiring for revenue-linked and reliability roles.","do_now":["Prioritize revenue-linked and reliability roles with staged approvals."],"avoid_now":["Avoid broad hiring classes without clear revenue or reliability linkage."],"scope":"Applies to all net-new headcount; current cash availability 52 and market risk appetite 58.","pause_trigger":"Pause net-new hiring if cash availability tightens above 76 or market risk appetite falls below 44.","resume_trigger":"Resume staged approvals when cash availability eases below 66 and market risk appetite is above 54.","flip_conditions":[{"metric":"tightness","operator":"<","value":66,"label":"Cash availability < 66"},{"metric":"riskAppetite","operator":">","value":54,"label":"Market risk appetite > 54"}],"rationale":"Protect delivery capacity without locking in irreversible fixed-cost growth."},{"area":"product-tempo","area_label":"Product tempo","recommendation":"Speed up product work tied to activation and retention goals.","do_now":["Speed up on product bets tied to activation and retention goals."],"avoid_now":["Avoid irreversible scope expansion before milestone evidence confirms traction."],"scope":"Roadmap sequencing, release scope, and experimentation cadence.","pause_trigger":"Pause long-payback bets if market risk appetite falls below 44 or two consecutive weaker weekly reads print.","resume_trigger":"Resume tempo on deferred bets when market risk appetite is above 54 and weekly direction stabilizes or improves.","flip_conditions":[{"metric":"riskAppetite","operator":">","value":54,"label":"Market risk appetite > 54"}],"rationale":"Keep cycle-time high where evidence is strong; cap downside from speculative scope."},{"area":"capital-raising","area_label":"Capital raising","recommendation":"Raise proactively from leverage while window quality is favorable.","do_now":["Run an active fundraising process while window quality remains favorable."],"avoid_now":["Avoid waiting for urgency before engaging investors while leverage is strong."],"scope":"Fundraising launch timing, process pacing, and minimum term quality.","pause_trigger":"Pause acceleration if market risk appetite falls below 44 or cash availability tightens above 76.","resume_trigger":"Resume full process when market risk appetite is above 54 and cash availability eases below 66.","flip_conditions":[{"metric":"riskAppetite","operator":">","value":54,"label":"Market risk appetite > 54"},{"metric":"tightness","operator":"<","value":66,"label":"Cash availability < 66"}],"rationale":"Timing the process around signal windows improves optionality and reduces forced terms."},{"area":"burn-discipline","area_label":"Burn discipline","recommendation":"Keep discretionary spend gated by measurable short-cycle payback.","do_now":["Gate discretionary spend by measurable short-cycle payback proof."],"avoid_now":["Avoid multi-quarter spend commitments without clear payback evidence."],"scope":"Hiring, vendor, and GTM program spend with multi-quarter commitments.","pause_trigger":"Pause discretionary burn expansion if cash availability tightens above 76.","resume_trigger":"Resume controlled burn expansion when cash availability eases below 66 and budget payback proof is intact.","flip_conditions":[{"metric":"tightness","operator":"<","value":66,"label":"Cash availability < 66"}],"rationale":"Cash durability preserves strategic options when macro direction changes quickly."},{"area":"expansion-bets","area_label":"Expansion bets","recommendation":"Run reversible expansion bets with explicit rollback criteria and stage gates.","do_now":["Run expansion in staged tranches with explicit rollback criteria."],"avoid_now":["Avoid one-way expansion commitments without stage-gate evidence."],"scope":"New market launches, major platform rewrites, and long-cycle initiatives.","pause_trigger":"Pause expansion bets if market risk appetite falls below 44 or cash availability tightens above 76.","resume_trigger":"Resume in tranches when market risk appetite is above 54 and cash availability eases below 66.","flip_conditions":[{"metric":"riskAppetite","operator":">","value":54,"label":"Market risk appetite > 54"},{"metric":"tightness","operator":"<","value":66,"label":"Cash availability < 66"}],"rationale":"Expansion should scale with validated window strength, not optimism."}],"decision_delta":{"summary":"Deteriorating weekly signal move. Conditions tightening — freeze new commitments and keep spend flexible.","regime_changed":false,"direction_label":"deteriorating","decision_now":"Conditions tightening — freeze new commitments and keep spend flexible.","do_now":["Compounding referral loops and share mechanics","Friction-light freemium paths or extended trials","Fast, bounded product bets in adjacent wedges","Measured geo expansion where demand signal is clear"],"avoid_now":["Over-engineering before demand proves out","Cost cuts that choke product velocity","Cautious hiring cycles that miss timing windows"],"changed_signals":[{"metric":"tightness","label":"Cash availability","from":40,"to":52,"delta":12,"direction":"up","decision_effect":"tighten"},{"metric":"riskAppetite","label":"Market risk appetite","from":59,"to":58,"delta":-1,"direction":"down","decision_effect":"tighten"},{"metric":"baseRate","label":"Fed interest rate","from":3.72,"to":3.79,"delta":0.07,"direction":"up","decision_effect":"tighten"},{"metric":"curveSlope","label":"Recession warning gauge","from":0.47,"to":0.45,"delta":-0.02,"direction":"down","decision_effect":"tighten"}]},"flip_watch":{"summary":"Transition watch is OFF. Primary trigger: Tightness ≤ 66 for 2 consecutive refreshes","transition_watch":"OFF","nearest_threshold_delta":8,"boundary_contributors":[],"weak_read_count":0,"two_weak_reads_warning":false,"flip_trigger":"Tightness ≤ 66 for 2 consecutive refreshes","thresholds":["Tightness ≤ 66 for 2 consecutive refreshes","Risk appetite ≥ 54 for 2 consecutive refreshes","Tightness > 76 or risk appetite < 44 resumes tighten stance"],"reversal_conditions":["Risk appetite ≥ 54 for 2 consecutive refreshes","Tightness > 76 or risk appetite < 44 resumes tighten stance"],"last_committed_change":{"timestamp":null,"from_state":null,"to_state":"EXPANSION","reason":"No committed transition event in store.","source":"state-machine"}},"skills":[{"id":"regime-summary","label":"Regime summary","purpose":"Explain the capital posture in plain English with the top macro signals.","inputs":["regime","scores","macro_signals","data_warnings"],"outputs":["summary_bullets"]},{"id":"decision-delta","label":"Decision delta","purpose":"Explain what changed this week and which decisions should tighten, loosen, or hold.","inputs":["decision_delta","decision_rules","signals"],"outputs":["delta_brief"]},{"id":"constraint-translation","label":"Constraint translation","purpose":"Turn constraints into clear guardrails for roadmap, hiring, and pricing.","inputs":["constraints","decision_rules","signals"],"outputs":["constraint_brief"]},{"id":"flip-watch","label":"Flip watch","purpose":"Track flip triggers, reversal conditions, and boundary pressure before irreversible moves.","inputs":["flip_watch","decision_rules","signals"],"outputs":["flip_watchlist"]},{"id":"pm-questions","label":"PM question log","purpose":"Surface open questions the PM must answer before acting.","inputs":["constraints","decision_delta","flip_watch","macro_signals"],"outputs":["pm_questions"]}],"pm_handoff":{"decision_focus":"Use constraints to validate roadmap, hiring, and pricing moves.","briefing_actions":["Summarize the regime in plain English.","State what changed this week and what decisions should change now.","Call out constraints that block or enable new initiatives.","Track flip triggers before making irreversible commitments.","List open questions for the product manager."]}},"prompt":"You are an autonomous PM assistant.\nFollow the skills list in the JSON payload and deliver outputs in the same order.\nUse the JSON payload to draft:\n1) A 3-bullet summary of the capital posture.\n2) A concise decision delta: what changed this week and what changes now.\n3) The top 3 constraints that should shape roadmap decisions.\n4) A flip watchlist with the trigger, reversal conditions, and current boundary pressure.\n5) A short list of questions to confirm with the PM before acting.\n\nContext: Whether Report for 2026-07-30 (EXPANSION)."},"summaryHash":"b5b85624","links":{"self":"/api/agent?cadence=weekly","llms":"/llms.txt","discovery":"/.well-known/whether-agent.json"},"generatedAt":"2026-08-01T10:48:00.390Z","version":"v1"}