{"cadence":"weekly","defaultCadence":"weekly","supportedCadences":["weekly","monthly","quarterly","yearly"],"summary":{"title":"Weekly action summary — Sep 11, 2026","summary":"Sunny: Capital is available and financing conditions are supportive. The weekly call sets the tempo inside that window. The priority this week is to scale the highest-ROI bets, hire deliberately, and keep payback discipline. The read is workable but not settled, and the signals behind it are barely moving.","regime":"EXPANSION","regimeLabel":"Sunny","guidance":"scale the highest-ROI bets, hire deliberately, and keep payback discipline","confidence":"MEDIUM","transitionWatch":false,"intensity":"MILD","constraints":["Prioritize reach and learning velocity over perfect finish.","Spend with clear guardrails, even if some experiments fail.","Scale capacity ahead of demand only where leading signals stay strong."],"recordDateLabel":"Sep 11, 2026","provenance":{"sourceLabel":"Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED)","sourceUrl":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS1MO","recordDateLabel":"Sep 11, 2026","timestampLabel":"Sep 15, 2026, 2:01 AM UTC","ageLabel":"12h.","statusLabel":"Canonical snapshot (high confidence)"},"inputs":[{"id":"base-rate","label":"The 1-month Treasury bill (1M)","value":3.93,"unit":"%","sourceLabel":"FRED CSV (DGS1MO, DGS3MO, DGS2, DGS10)","sourceUrl":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS1MO","recordDate":"2026-09-11","fetchedAt":"2026-09-15T02:01:00.658Z","notes":"Used as the cost-of-money anchor for tightness scoring."},{"id":"two-year","label":"US Treasury 2Y","value":4.63,"unit":"%","sourceLabel":"FRED CSV (DGS1MO, DGS3MO, DGS2, DGS10)","sourceUrl":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS1MO","recordDate":"2026-09-11","fetchedAt":"2026-09-15T02:01:00.658Z"},{"id":"ten-year","label":"US Treasury 10Y","value":4.96,"unit":"%","sourceLabel":"FRED CSV (DGS1MO, DGS3MO, DGS2, DGS10)","sourceUrl":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS1MO","recordDate":"2026-09-11","fetchedAt":"2026-09-15T02:01:00.658Z"},{"id":"curve-slope","label":"Yield curve slope (10Y - 2Y)","value":0.33000000000000007,"unit":"%","sourceLabel":"FRED CSV (DGS1MO, DGS3MO, DGS2, DGS10)","sourceUrl":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS1MO","recordDate":"2026-09-11","fetchedAt":"2026-09-15T02:01:00.658Z","derivedFrom":"US Treasury 10Y and 2Y yields","notes":"Derived metric used to score risk appetite."}],"structured":{"climate":{"label":"✅ RISK-ON / CAPITAL-LOOSE","summary":["Capital is accessible and financing conditions are supportive.","Expect faster approvals and higher tolerance for bold bets."]},"recommendedMoves":["Prioritize speed and distribution over perfection","Scale proven growth channels and widen market coverage","Move decisively while enforcing payback guardrails"],"executionPriorities":["Growth experiments with clear scaling paths","New market expansion backed by demand signals","Product investments that amplify acquisition"],"watchouts":["Over-optimizing cost at the expense of momentum","Delaying launches while waiting for perfect data","Under-investing in capacity while demand is strong"],"planningLanguage":"“Move quickly on growth bets, maintain payback discipline, and set clear exit criteria before scaling spend.”","executionConstraints":["Prioritize reach and learning velocity over perfect finish.","Spend with clear guardrails, even if some experiments fail.","Scale capacity ahead of demand only where leading signals stay strong."],"governanceParameters":{"hiringThreshold":"MODERATE","paybackWindowTolerance":"LONGER","rollbackRequirement":"STANDARD","approvalVelocity":"FASTER","expansionScope":"BROAD","experimentationTolerance":"HIGH"}},"copy":"Weekly action summary — Sep 11, 2026\nSunny: Capital is available and financing conditions are supportive. The weekly call sets the tempo inside that window. The priority this week is to scale the highest-ROI bets, hire deliberately, and keep payback discipline. The read is workable but not settled, and the signals behind it are barely moving.\n\n---\nWHETHER · Capital Posture Governance\n\nUpdated Sep 11, 2026\n\n---\n\nMARKET CLIMATE\n\n✅ RISK-ON / CAPITAL-LOOSE\n\nCapital is accessible and financing conditions are supportive.\nExpect faster approvals and higher tolerance for bold bets.\n\n\nContextual, not moral: this is what the environment is rewarding right now.\n\n\n---\n\nRECOMMENDED MOVES FOR PRODUCT TEAMS (NOW)\n\n• Prioritize speed and distribution over perfection\n• Scale proven growth channels and widen market coverage\n• Move decisively while enforcing payback guardrails\n\n\n---\n\nEXECUTION PRIORITIES THAT TRAVEL WELL\n\n• Growth experiments with clear scaling paths\n• New market expansion backed by demand signals\n• Product investments that amplify acquisition\n\n\n---\n\nWATCHOUTS THAT BREAK EXECUTION\n\n• Over-optimizing cost at the expense of momentum\n• Delaying launches while waiting for perfect data\n• Under-investing in capacity while demand is strong\n\n\n---\n\nPLANNING LANGUAGE TO USE\n\n> “Move quickly on growth bets, maintain payback discipline, and set clear exit criteria before scaling spend.”\n\n\n\n---\n\nEXECUTION CONSTRAINTS\n\n• Prioritize reach and learning velocity over perfect finish.\n• Spend with clear guardrails, even if some experiments fail.\n• Scale capacity ahead of demand only where leading signals stay strong.\n\n\n\n---\n\nGOVERNANCE PARAMETER ADJUSTMENTS\n\n• Hiring threshold: MODERATE\n• Payback window tolerance: LONGER\n• Rollback requirement: STANDARD\n• Approval velocity: FASTER\n• Expansion scope: BROAD\n• Experimentation tolerance: HIGH\n\n---\n\nRECOMMENDATION CONFIDENCE\n\nConfidence: Canonical snapshot (high confidence)\nUncertainty: this is an interpretive read, not a forecast. Check the assumptions against your own numbers before you act on it.\n\n\n---\n\nDATA PROVENANCE & QUALITY\n\nSource: Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS1MO)\nTimestamp: Sep 15, 2026, 2:01 AM UTC\nData age: 12h.\n\nSource: Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS1MO) · Sep 15, 2026, 2:01 AM UTC · Confidence: Canonical snapshot (high confidence)"},"copy":"Weekly action summary — Sep 11, 2026\nSunny: Capital is available and financing conditions are supportive. The weekly call sets the tempo inside that window. The priority this week is to scale the highest-ROI bets, hire deliberately, and keep payback discipline. The read is workable but not settled, and the signals behind it are barely moving.\n\n---\nWHETHER · Capital Posture Governance\n\nUpdated Sep 11, 2026\n\n---\n\nMARKET CLIMATE\n\n✅ RISK-ON / CAPITAL-LOOSE\n\nCapital is accessible and financing conditions are supportive.\nExpect faster approvals and higher tolerance for bold bets.\n\n\nContextual, not moral: this is what the environment is rewarding right now.\n\n\n---\n\nRECOMMENDED MOVES FOR PRODUCT TEAMS (NOW)\n\n• Prioritize speed and distribution over perfection\n• Scale proven growth channels and widen market coverage\n• Move decisively while enforcing payback guardrails\n\n\n---\n\nEXECUTION PRIORITIES THAT TRAVEL WELL\n\n• Growth experiments with clear scaling paths\n• New market expansion backed by demand signals\n• Product investments that amplify acquisition\n\n\n---\n\nWATCHOUTS THAT BREAK EXECUTION\n\n• Over-optimizing cost at the expense of momentum\n• Delaying launches while waiting for perfect data\n• Under-investing in capacity while demand is strong\n\n\n---\n\nPLANNING LANGUAGE TO USE\n\n> “Move quickly on growth bets, maintain payback discipline, and set clear exit criteria before scaling spend.”\n\n\n\n---\n\nEXECUTION CONSTRAINTS\n\n• Prioritize reach and learning velocity over perfect finish.\n• Spend with clear guardrails, even if some experiments fail.\n• Scale capacity ahead of demand only where leading signals stay strong.\n\n\n\n---\n\nGOVERNANCE PARAMETER ADJUSTMENTS\n\n• Hiring threshold: MODERATE\n• Payback window tolerance: LONGER\n• Rollback requirement: STANDARD\n• Approval velocity: FASTER\n• Expansion scope: BROAD\n• Experimentation tolerance: HIGH\n\n---\n\nRECOMMENDATION CONFIDENCE\n\nConfidence: Canonical snapshot (high confidence)\nUncertainty: this is an interpretive read, not a forecast. Check the assumptions against your own numbers before you act on it.\n\n\n---\n\nDATA PROVENANCE & QUALITY\n\nSource: Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS1MO)\nTimestamp: Sep 15, 2026, 2:01 AM UTC\nData age: 12h.\n\nSource: Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS1MO) · Sep 15, 2026, 2:01 AM UTC · Confidence: Canonical snapshot (high confidence)","provenance":{"sourceLabel":"Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED)","sourceUrl":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS1MO","recordDateLabel":"Sep 11, 2026","timestampLabel":"Sep 15, 2026, 2:01 AM UTC","ageLabel":"12h.","statusLabel":"Canonical snapshot (high confidence)"},"recordDateLabel":"Sep 11, 2026","degraded":false,"agentHandoff":{"payload":{"report_date":"2026-09-11","fetched_at":"2026-09-15T02:01:00.658Z","source":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS1MO","regime":{"key":"EXPANSION","label":"Sunny","description":"Capital is available and financing conditions are supportive. The weekly call sets the tempo inside that window."},"scores":{"tightness":77,"tightnessPressure":77,"tightnessSaturated":false,"riskAppetite":42,"baseRateUsed":"1M","baseRate":3.93,"curveSlope":0.33000000000000007,"baseRateVelocityPoints":0},"thresholds":{"baseRateTightness":3.5,"tightnessRegime":70,"riskAppetiteRegime":50},"constraints":["Prioritize reach and learning velocity over perfect finish.","Spend with clear guardrails, even if some experiments fail.","Scale capacity ahead of demand only where leading signals stay strong."],"data_warnings":[],"signals":[{"id":"BASE_RATE","label":"Base rate (1M)","value":3.93,"unit":"%","record_date":"2026-09-11","fetched_at":"2026-09-15T02:01:00.658Z","source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS1MO"},{"id":"CURVE_SLOPE","label":"Curve slope (10Y - 2Y)","value":0.33000000000000007,"unit":"%","record_date":"2026-09-11","fetched_at":"2026-09-15T02:01:00.658Z","source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS1MO"}],"macro_signals":[{"id":"CPI_YOY","label":"CPI inflation (YoY)","value":3.353016322755652,"unit":"%","record_date":"2026-08-01","fetched_at":"2026-09-15T02:01:00.658Z","source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL"},{"id":"UNEMPLOYMENT_RATE","label":"Unemployment rate (U-3)","value":4.1,"unit":"%","record_date":"2026-08-01","fetched_at":"2026-09-15T02:01:00.658Z","source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE"},{"id":"BBB_CREDIT_SPREAD","label":"BBB credit spread (OAS)","value":1.5,"unit":"%","record_date":"2026-09-11","fetched_at":"2026-09-15T02:01:00.658Z","source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAA10Y"},{"id":"HY_CREDIT_SPREAD","label":"High yield credit spread (OAS)","value":2.65,"unit":"%","record_date":"2026-09-11","fetched_at":"2026-09-15T02:01:00.658Z","source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLH0A0HYM2"},{"id":"CHICAGO_FCI","label":"Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index","value":-0.564,"unit":"index","record_date":"2026-09-04","fetched_at":"2026-09-15T02:01:00.658Z","source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NFCI"},{"id":"VIX_INDEX","label":"CBOE volatility index (VIX)","value":15.84,"unit":"index","record_date":"2026-09-11","fetched_at":"2026-09-15T02:01:00.658Z","source_url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/VIXCLS"},{"id":"VC_FUNDING_VELOCITY","label":"VC funding velocity (quarterly trend)","value":-32.8,"unit":"%","record_date":"2026-09-01","fetched_at":"2026-09-14T18:00:00Z","source_url":"https://news.crunchbase.com/venture/global-startup-exits-ipo-ma-soar-ai-q2-h1-2026/"},{"id":"TECH_LAYOFF_TREND","label":"Tech layoff trend","value":66,"unit":"index","record_date":"2026-09-01","fetched_at":"2026-09-14T18:00:00Z","source_url":"https://layoffs.fyi/"},{"id":"SAAS_VALUATION_MULTIPLE","label":"Public SaaS EV/Revenue median","value":4.1,"unit":"x","record_date":"2026-09-01","fetched_at":"2026-09-14T18:00:00Z","source_url":"https://meritech.substack.com/p/meritech-software-pulse-31-july-2026"},{"id":"EARNINGS_REVISION_INDEX","label":"Tech earnings revision index","value":86,"unit":"index","record_date":"2026-09-01","fetched_at":"2026-09-14T18:00:00Z","source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/news/4638631-tech-leads-sp-500-sectors-in-positive-2026-eps-revisions-since-july"},{"id":"AI_COMPUTE_COST_TREND","label":"AI compute cost trend","value":-6.5,"unit":"%","record_date":"2026-09-01","fetched_at":"2026-09-14T18:00:00Z","source_url":"https://cloud.google.com/products/compute/pricing/accelerator-optimized"},{"id":"REGULATORY_RISK_TRACKER","label":"AI/platform regulatory risk tracker","value":52,"unit":"index","record_date":"2026-09-01","fetched_at":"2026-09-14T18:00:00Z","source_url":"https://artificialintelligenceact.eu/"}],"decision_rules":[{"area":"hiring","area_label":"Hiring","recommendation":"Selective hiring for revenue-linked and reliability roles.","do_now":["Prioritize revenue-linked and reliability roles with staged approvals."],"avoid_now":["Avoid broad hiring classes without clear revenue or reliability linkage."],"scope":"Applies to all net-new headcount; current funding pressure 77 and risk appetite 42.","pause_trigger":"Pause net-new hiring if funding pressure rises above 76 or risk appetite falls below 44.","resume_trigger":"Resume staged approvals when funding pressure falls below 66 and risk appetite is above 54.","flip_conditions":[{"metric":"tightness","operator":"<","value":66,"label":"Funding pressure < 66"},{"metric":"riskAppetite","operator":">","value":54,"label":"Risk appetite > 54"}],"rationale":"Protect delivery capacity without locking in irreversible fixed-cost growth."},{"area":"product-tempo","area_label":"Product tempo","recommendation":"Speed up product work tied to activation and retention goals.","do_now":["Speed up on product bets tied to activation and retention goals."],"avoid_now":["Avoid irreversible scope expansion before milestone evidence confirms traction."],"scope":"Roadmap sequencing, release scope, and experimentation cadence.","pause_trigger":"Pause long-payback bets if risk appetite falls below 44 or two consecutive weaker weekly reads print.","resume_trigger":"Resume tempo on deferred bets when risk appetite is above 54 and weekly direction stabilizes or improves.","flip_conditions":[{"metric":"riskAppetite","operator":">","value":54,"label":"Risk appetite > 54"}],"rationale":"Keep cycle-time high where evidence is strong; cap downside from speculative scope."},{"area":"capital-raising","area_label":"Capital raising","recommendation":"Raise proactively from leverage while window quality is favorable.","do_now":["Run an active fundraising process while window quality remains favorable."],"avoid_now":["Avoid waiting for urgency before engaging investors while leverage is strong."],"scope":"Fundraising launch timing, process pacing, and minimum term quality.","pause_trigger":"Pause acceleration if risk appetite falls below 44 or funding pressure rises above 76.","resume_trigger":"Resume full process when risk appetite is above 54 and funding pressure falls below 66.","flip_conditions":[{"metric":"riskAppetite","operator":">","value":54,"label":"Risk appetite > 54"},{"metric":"tightness","operator":"<","value":66,"label":"Funding pressure < 66"}],"rationale":"Timing the process around signal windows improves optionality and reduces forced terms."},{"area":"burn-discipline","area_label":"Burn discipline","recommendation":"Keep discretionary spend gated by measurable short-cycle payback.","do_now":["Gate discretionary spend by measurable short-cycle payback proof."],"avoid_now":["Avoid multi-quarter spend commitments without clear payback evidence."],"scope":"Hiring, vendor, and GTM program spend with multi-quarter commitments.","pause_trigger":"Pause discretionary burn expansion if funding pressure rises above 76.","resume_trigger":"Resume controlled burn expansion when funding pressure falls below 66 and budget payback proof is intact.","flip_conditions":[{"metric":"tightness","operator":"<","value":66,"label":"Funding pressure < 66"}],"rationale":"Cash durability preserves strategic options when macro direction changes quickly."},{"area":"expansion-bets","area_label":"Expansion bets","recommendation":"Run reversible expansion bets with explicit rollback criteria and stage gates.","do_now":["Run expansion in staged tranches with explicit rollback criteria."],"avoid_now":["Avoid one-way expansion commitments without stage-gate evidence."],"scope":"New market launches, major platform rewrites, and long-cycle initiatives.","pause_trigger":"Pause expansion bets if risk appetite falls below 44 or funding pressure rises above 76.","resume_trigger":"Resume in tranches when risk appetite is above 54 and funding pressure falls below 66.","flip_conditions":[{"metric":"riskAppetite","operator":">","value":54,"label":"Risk appetite > 54"},{"metric":"tightness","operator":"<","value":66,"label":"Funding pressure < 66"}],"rationale":"Expansion should scale with validated window strength, not optimism."}],"decision_delta":{"summary":"Deteriorating weekly signal move. Conditions tightening — keep proven bets moving, but stage anything new.","regime_changed":false,"direction_label":"deteriorating","decision_now":"Conditions tightening — keep proven bets moving, but stage anything new.","do_now":["Compounding referral loops and share mechanics","Friction-light freemium paths or extended trials","Fast, bounded product bets in adjacent wedges","Measured geo expansion where demand signal is clear"],"avoid_now":["Over-engineering before demand proves out","Cost cuts that choke product velocity","Cautious hiring cycles that miss timing windows"],"changed_signals":[{"metric":"tightness","label":"Funding pressure","from":63,"to":77,"delta":14,"direction":"up","decision_effect":"tighten"},{"metric":"riskAppetite","label":"Risk appetite","from":56,"to":42,"delta":-14,"direction":"down","decision_effect":"tighten"},{"metric":"baseRate","label":"Fed interest rate","from":3.85,"to":3.93,"delta":0.08,"direction":"up","decision_effect":"tighten"},{"metric":"curveSlope","label":"Recession warning gauge","from":0.41,"to":0.33,"delta":-0.08,"direction":"down","decision_effect":"tighten"}]},"flip_watch":{"summary":"Flip to Freezing is pending confirmation; the call holds at Sunny until the next read confirms it. Risk appetite crossed below 50. Transition pending confidence gate (1/2). Transition watch is OFF. Primary trigger: Funding pressure ≤ 66 for 2 consecutive refreshes","pending_transition":{"candidate":"SCARCITY","candidate_label":"Freezing","pending_count":1,"reason":"Risk appetite crossed below 50. Transition pending confidence gate (1/2)."},"transition_watch":"OFF","nearest_threshold_delta":7,"boundary_contributors":["VC funding slowdown","Tech layoff pressure"],"weak_read_count":2,"two_weak_reads_warning":true,"flip_trigger":"Funding pressure ≤ 66 for 2 consecutive refreshes","thresholds":["Funding pressure ≤ 66 for 2 consecutive refreshes","Risk appetite ≥ 54 for 2 consecutive refreshes","Funding pressure > 76 or risk appetite < 44 resumes tighten stance"],"reversal_conditions":["Risk appetite ≥ 54 for 2 consecutive refreshes","Funding pressure > 76 or risk appetite < 44 resumes tighten stance"],"last_committed_change":{"timestamp":null,"from_state":null,"to_state":"EXPANSION","reason":"No committed transition event in store.","source":"state-machine"}},"skills":[{"id":"regime-summary","label":"Regime summary","purpose":"Explain the capital posture in plain English with the top macro signals.","inputs":["regime","scores","macro_signals","data_warnings"],"outputs":["summary_bullets"]},{"id":"decision-delta","label":"Decision delta","purpose":"Explain what changed this week and which decisions should tighten, loosen, or hold.","inputs":["decision_delta","decision_rules","signals"],"outputs":["delta_brief"]},{"id":"constraint-translation","label":"Constraint translation","purpose":"Turn constraints into clear guardrails for roadmap, hiring, and pricing.","inputs":["constraints","decision_rules","signals"],"outputs":["constraint_brief"]},{"id":"flip-watch","label":"Flip watch","purpose":"Track flip triggers, reversal conditions, and boundary pressure before irreversible moves.","inputs":["flip_watch","decision_rules","signals"],"outputs":["flip_watchlist"]},{"id":"pm-questions","label":"PM question log","purpose":"Surface open questions the PM must answer before acting.","inputs":["constraints","decision_delta","flip_watch","macro_signals"],"outputs":["pm_questions"]}],"pm_handoff":{"decision_focus":"Use constraints to validate roadmap, hiring, and pricing moves.","briefing_actions":["Summarize the regime in plain English.","State what changed this week and what decisions should change now.","Call out constraints that block or enable new initiatives.","Track flip triggers before making irreversible commitments.","List open questions for the product manager."]}},"prompt":"You are an autonomous PM assistant.\nFollow the skills list in the JSON payload and deliver outputs in the same order.\nUse the JSON payload to draft:\n1) A 3-bullet summary of the capital posture.\n2) A concise decision delta: what changed this week and what changes now.\n3) The top 3 constraints that should shape roadmap decisions.\n4) A flip watchlist with the trigger, reversal conditions, and current boundary pressure.\n5) A short list of questions to confirm with the PM before acting.\n\nContext: Whether Weekly Brief for 2026-09-11 (EXPANSION)."},"summaryHash":"bbc15985","links":{"self":"/api/agent?cadence=weekly","llms":"/llms.txt","discovery":"/.well-known/whether-agent.json"},"generatedAt":"2026-09-15T13:44:08.156Z","version":"v1"}